The amount of misinformation on social media (sadly some intentional) is staggering. What people believe that is not true, frightening.
Crime is rampant and rising, inflation is growing, people can’t find jobs, Social Security is in trouble because Congress took money from the trust, CEO compensation takes money from workers, the wealthy don’t pay taxes, the federal minimum wage determines pay for most workers, 78% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck.
All wrong and a few bordering on absurd … and yet so many Americans believe what they read and hear with no effort to check the facts.
A recent poll concerning the state of the US economy revealed that most Americans have a rather downcast view of how things are going. According to the Guardian/Harris poll,1 which surveyed more than 2,000 adults over 2 days in May 2024, significant numbers of Americans believe that:2
- The US is currently experiencing a recession.
- The stock market is suffering.
- Inflation is increasing.
- Unemployment is at a 50-year high.
“When I look at the results of the poll, I find them surprising,” says Naveen Malwal, institutional portfolio manager with Strategic Advisers, LLC. “I closely follow economic data and markets, and I’m not seeing many signs of weakness. But I can also appreciate where investors are coming from. Looking at the news, it’s easy to hold on to some of the negative stories that we’ve seen.”
In fact, the data tells another story:
- While the criteria for determining when a recession occurs is complex, there is no indication that one has arrived. The gross domestic product of the US has actually grown over the last 2 quarters: by 3.3% in Q4 2023 and 1.6% in Q1 2024.2
- Stocks are doing well. The S&P 500® Index rose by 24% in 2023 and has continued on its upward trajectory in 2024, rising more than 10% in Q1 2024.2
- Though still elevated from its pre-pandemic levels, the rate of inflation most recently dropped to 3.4% in April, down significantly from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.2 Furthermore, wages have generally been rising faster than inflation since February 2023, which in theory should lessen the impact of rising costs on consumers.3
- The unemployment rate is actually near a 50-year low. In May 2024, it rose slightly to 4%, which is well below the average reading of 5.7% since 1950.4
Why is there such a gap between perception and reality about the economy?
It may be hard to pinpoint exactly why there’s a substantial gap between Americans’ perception of the economy and the reality of the data. It’s possible that the situation could be influenced by the lingering sting of inflation. This has paradoxically emerged as a greater concern among poll respondents over the last 3 years, even as the rate of inflation has declined back toward more typical levels.5
Beyond that, it’s common for the media and news organizations (not to mention social media) to prominently feature negative stories while downplaying or ignoring positive outcomes or resolutions. This is partly due to the fact that readers and viewers appear to engage more with negative news, a psychological phenomenon known as “negativity bias.”6 This can lead to a skewed understanding of what’s going on in the economy.
“For example, investors may have seen headlines about layoffs, and sometimes those numbers feel big and can give the impression that the whole US job market is struggling,” says Malwal. “What’s not covered as much, however, is the more gradual hiring that’s happening throughout the country. Sometimes even the companies that are laying off employees in one area may be hiring employees in another at the same time.”
When the general mood is one of doom and gloom, even good news may be met with anxiety. Some investors believed that the fact that the S&P 500 Index was regularly reaching new all-time highs in the first half of 2024 was a harbinger of an imminent collapse. Perennial concerns, such as fear of a rising national debt or volatility as a result of the upcoming presidential election continue to influence investment decisions, perhaps negatively.
As an investor, however, it’s critical that you reconcile your beliefs about the present economic situation with the data to ensure that the decisions you make regarding your assets, your portfolio, and your future are constructive and geared toward helping you reach your goals.
Source: Fidelity
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I guess it depends on what 2000 people who were polled as to why the answers are so negative. Asking 2000 out of 340 million may not give an accurate perception in any case.
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Perception meets reality when negative experiences hit you or someone you know such as a friend or neighbor. You’re the victim of a crime or you lose your job or you’re forced to cut things from your essentials bucket or you get your property tax assessment increase or any number of other negative real consequences.
Then it’s human nature to generalize to others as well. “Gee, If it happened to little o me then it’s happening to others as well. And so it goes……. to hell with polls
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Slow Shuffling Joe takes credit for all that he thinks is good so like you I blame him for all that is not so good.
SS Joe told me the price is still $1.00 a gallon but the increased cost is because of state and local taxes so “come on man don’t blame me”. Anyway Joe is behind the move to “drill baby drill” thus we are now exporting fossil fuel much to the chagrin of the lefty followers, but in spite of state levies the “real” price is about $1 per gallon.
now if we are honest about salaries it’s only the rich Caucasian folks like you and me Vern that are benefiting–those brown folks coming across in millions have been great for us which is why we let them pour in
remember Vern those Snickers contain too much sugar–sugar is bad– and like cigarettes, we tax the heck out of it–so we can blame SS Joe for that as he has spent 50-years making the rules.
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Rigjt on point as usual, Al. There are people who like to point out that inflation has been much worse in all the other developed economies, but I still hold Biden responsible anyway, because he is old. I don’t care a whit if America has far outperformed those other economies the past four years. It’s just meaningless statistics. My YouTube channels and right wing talk radio programs are telling the real story that the government and media are trying to hide. Jesus doesn’t want us to be too rich anyway. “it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of A needle than for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God!” We need Trump to save us from this godless materialism and take us back to the golden age.
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Exactly Vern–inflation in some countries is less than ours but higher than ours in a few other–but you know how the uniformed voter votes based on their personal experiences–only rich white folks like us can travel to Paris and London and talk about inflation and wave the virtue flag. They should not believe what they are seeing like our leader who remains frozen at various times–“where’s the technician” I said to my wife last week when he froze up. They tell me he is a ball of fire in private which is why they keep him under lock and key.
I agree that our CEO has managed the country so well that we are the envy of the world–our CEO has lower taxes to work with so more people have more money to spend while the competition overseas taxes everything that moves–our CEO believes that fewer regulations means more growth and greater wealth–and our CEO gets rid of extraneous debt by forgiving loans to the privileged among us and let’s the poor working class pick up the bill–heck they aren’t on your Viking river cruise next month Vern other than to serve you, so the heck with them.
I think the slow one is the better choice–look at all he has done for us since being sworn in–heck the 7- million illegals are enough for both of us to get behind his candidacy–think of the chores they do in our neighborhood and the diversity they bring to your church pot luck suppers.
I don’t know about that needle and Jesus and all that–for you living in your racially and economically diverse “hood” that might work–but not here surrounded by rich liberals waving their virtue flags.
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Honestly I would vote for Trump anyway. I support the Republican proposals for getting rid of IVF and birth control, and for the death penalty for any woman who has an abortion. We need to take back this country for Jesus. Every time I read the news, I see so many parallels between his suffering and Trump’s suffering. We will overcome
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come on Vern you know Putin had a field day under Obama (Crimea) and the slow one (Ukraine) –he saw one schlemiel draw a red line only to cringe and back off when it was breached and the other character doing that great job in Afghanistan so ” why not head into the border nation” says Putin, especially when the slow guy said he would be satisfied with a partial invasion. Let’s be honest we can jazz up the economy with all this spending on armaments.
I truly understand your position on the taking of lives even before they come from the womb. Too many people on planet Earth, environmental standards are sacrificed if the population is too large, food and water are limited, fires and storms are wrecking the globe, so I can see why you feel killing the unborn is totally justified even in a Christian nation. No doubt you read the Population Bomb at that ivy league prep school and it had life long meaning.
The folks were at the Supreme Court yesterday taking a break from beating and harassing Jews–they were not so peacefully agitating for more freedom to abort at any time. They are the true heroes fighting against the right of states to make their own laws. Too much freedom and democracy is not necessarily a good thing as we both know.
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Al, you are absolutely right that Putin invaded Ukraine because the coward Biden pulled out of Afghanistan. Trump would never have given up in Afghanistan and would have stayed as long as it took to finish the job. Trump showed over and over powerful wartime President. Now that we don’t have US troops involved in a war for the first time in nearly 30 years under weak Joe Biden, American is no longer respected. We need to bring back Trump and bring back war to show the world America is strong.
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Voters don’t vote based on your thoughts Richard. They vote based on their own thoughts and EXPERIENCES! So they look at those groceries that used to cost $300 a week and now cost $400 or more, or that gas that was under $2.00 a gallon and we’re happy if it’s below$3.40 a gallon, or that utility bill that’s now 25% higher. Knowing that the unemployment rate is low has never helped a family that’s already employed. Unless it’s to get a second or third job to support the family. Knowing the current administration cares more about the Ukraine border then it does about its own border doesn’t sit well.
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Exactly. This is why I am voting for Trump. Only he has the balls to give Ukraine to Putin and stop this war. And I love his new proposal to make immigrants compete in UFC fights for visas. Both useful and entertaining!
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Good points Vern–Putin is on record saying he only gives back what Obama and the slow one allowed him to take–I guess the game stops when big daddy says “STOP”.
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I don’t know what that means Al, but I think we can all agree that Putin is an honorable man who works well with Trump. I bet there will be peace in Ukraine as soon as Trump is inaugurated.
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You coastal elites can throw up all the fancy statistics you want, but you can’t hide the truth. In 1991, gas was only $1 per gallon and now it is like $3.50. I blame Joe Biden for that. I remember when I could get a Snickers Bar for fifty cents. It may be true that both my salary and net worth is at an all time high, but so is everyone else’s, so it doesn’t feel special. You just don’t get it. It is about vibes, not statistics.
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good points as usual Vern–Trump inherited Afghanistan from Bush–and Obama and looks like he gets Gaza/Israel as well as Ukraine if he were to win–unpredictability and strength are the hallmarks of good leadership–
the slow one has accepted China’s warships floating around the Asian region but he is upset that Congress refuses to increase our military budget–he was so angry he threatened to withhold money from the transsexual research projects at NIH.
What do think Vern–will the old boy have his life alert medical device ready for Thursday night?
I bet he cleans up on Trump–he has taken a week off–slept late every day–has 16 prep advisors in the mock studio–and has been practicing to stand for 90-minutes. That ding -dong Trump has been out every night mixing it up with the common folks.
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I can’t agree you with more. I voted for Trump even after he lost the debates badly in 2016 and 2020. Debates don’t matter to me. It is all liberal media spin and they will try to make Trump look bad. I grew up hearing stuff my whole life like slavery was all bad and Nazis were evil, but not it turns out that there is a lot of evidence that some slaves were happier and got real job skills, and Nazis made great advances in science. You can’t trust anything you hear from the liberal media.
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it’s true they told us the lie about Russian collusion–the Hunter laptop–the issue at Charlottesville (check snopes)–the invasion by immigrants was just our imagination and of course when we see the old man shuffle along, need special shoes, and board his plane with a short stairs we should not believe our lying eyes they tell us–and let’s not forget they tell us how alert and on track he is in private so don’t believe what you hear grandpa say, if you can understand it–
I love their convincing narrative about him holding hands with Barack after they raised millions and off stage he went–remember they said he was just standing still and was overwhelmed by the adoring throng of billionaires although the right wing hack reporters wondered why he did’t wave or point to the crowd as he had been a politician for 50-years and knows the animation routine.
Of course debates matter Vern that’s why they have spent a week with the old guy secluded at Camp David sleeping and learning to stand for more than 10-minutes–don’t believe the right when they wonder if this week is any different than any other week for gramps–eat, sleep, do a bit of work and repeat the routine.
No Vern Nazi folks are bad as you can see with the young Democrats in Los Angeles last Saturday and their campus behavior this spring–they were lucky though as the Justice Dept. and the old man refused to do anything–they should have had their MAGA uniforms on so they could be filmed and hunted down–hate crimes for some and not others but we aren’t complaining are we Vern.
Slavery is bad Vern just ask the old man who gave such thoughtful eulogies for Richard Russell and Sen. Byrd the old Klan Kleagle–as usual the liberals forget history, especially Mr. Crow Vern and the role of their party, but if you You Tube Congressman Bowman (“I didn’t know that was the fire alarm” ) you can get a glimpse of the happy rep. especially when AOC does her hip hop routine on stage–can you believe it Vern a black liberal hating Jews, and in public!
Oh well you are right about those phony liberals holed up in their privileged neighborhoods waving the flag of virtue while being critical of a justice’s wife for flying hers.
No doubt, like me Vern, you have that gay pride flag flying in celebration of their month. No virtue flags for us big boy!
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