There is a high probability that a public plan option will be in the final legislation. Question is in what form.
There could be a trigger mechanism that puts it in place only after certain reform metrics are not met in a few years. Members of Congress are also discussing consumer cooperatives as an alternative. But the strength of the Democratic majority and the parliamentary rules will allow the Democrats to pass health reform even without any Republican support. So far, most Republicans have been opposed to health reform as it is being discussed. So if they don’t support a compromise, then a more ambitious public plan is more likely.
A public plan option will likely lead to full government run health care in a few years, which is the ultimate objective of many in Congress and perhaps the American people. But government run health care does not automatically lead to cost savings or the quality of care we all want.
For examples we only have to turn to Medicare and Medicaid. Successive Congresses have modified these plans, created numerous mandates, failed to adequately fund them and shifted billions of dollars in costs to the states and the private sector in failed attempts to control costs. Yes, these programs provide some level of coverage to millions of Americans, but they are also creating intolerable financial burdens that are approaching crisis levels. Much of this is due to federal manipulation of the programs and the creation of expectations that cannot be reasonably fulfilled. The same objective of providing coverage could be achieved without a federal bureaucracy running them.
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