See, we told you so. Why health care will change in 2015

 

The expectation of many Americans is that the passage of health reform will mean lower health care costs and thus lower premiums.  This is essentially the promise made by the President, the idea sold by placing the cause of unaffordable health care at the door of insurance companies. Between now and 2014 employer costs for health benefits are expected to rise by at least 50%, there is no reason to expect that individual coverage will be any different and perhaps worse.

The question is what happens when expectations and reality collide around January 2015.  How will Congress explain what happened?  As is the case with Massachusetts, the first reaction will be to blame insurance companies followed by using government power under the new law to deny premium increases.  That may work for a year or two but then what?  Well, a government plan will be called for, the solution many Americans wanted in the first place. See, we told you so. The problem is that even by 2015 nothing will have been done to control health care costs.  To fulfill the ongoing expectation of savings under reform a new strategy will be required. 

[picapp align=”none” wrap=”false” link=”term=mass+health+care&iid=1630010″ src=”1/b/a/3/Hospital_Workers_Protest_8c75.jpg?adImageId=12172599&imageId=1630010″ width=”500″ height=”254″ /] Protesting budget cuts affecting hospitals………………in Germany

That strategy must include rationing be it changing benefits, applying more reviews before approving care or simply denying payment for services.  Another possible strategy is to change the way physicians and hospitals are paid. That is a strategy many of us felt was necessary sooner rather than later.  The bottom line is that one way or the other Americans will no longer be able to receive all care they want or that is ordered for them when they want it.  Total freedom as most Americans enjoy today is simply inconsistent with controlling health care costs.

You can’t add steep taxes on health sectors, more government mandates on what must be included in benefit packages, a week individual mandate structure that may encourage healthy Americans to pay a penalty instead of buying insurance, or eliminate underwriting rules, mandate adult children be covered to age 26 – and expect consumer costs to decrease.