Using the same formula to calculate the Social Security COLA that has been in effect since 1975, if the 2025 COLA were calculated today based on the change in inflation for March, the 2025 COLA would be 1.7%
That can be compared with the past seven SS COLAs
2017 2.0
2018 2.8
2019 1.6
2020 1.3
2021 5.9
2022 8.7
2023 3.2 effective 1/24
So, what has happened with inflation since 2017 and equally important why?
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
1.7% per Quinn, 2.6 per The Senior Citizens League – who to believe?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/social-security-cost-living-adjustment-080200721.html
Though, not knowing the Part B premium increase, an estimated SS COLA increase means little. I know, just plan to add whatever COLA increase minus the Medicare premium increase to my cash cushion and not worry about trying to spend it before it is received in January’25. The time between October and end of year is plenty of time for me to plan any adjustments to my 2025 spending plan. I plan to enjoy my time now until October and not spend any of that time thinking increases to SS & Medicare – things I have no control over.
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The SCL projects simply using the annual rate of CPI change year over year. That is not how the COLA is calculated. I use the latest month and compare it to the average of the 3rd quarter 2023 (the base for the actual 2025 calculation.
It all depends on where inflation goes from here on, but what matters is the average CPI-W for the 3rd quarter 2024 compared to 2023.
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Using March CPI and comparing it to 3rd quarter 2023 is not how SS COLA is calculated and you know this. It is calculated 3rd quarter 2024 vs 3rd quarter 2023. March CPI is not used in the actual SS COLA calculation, only the Quinn COLA estimate calculation. So this estimate you are making is not using the actual formula, just some modified version you came up with by changing part of the variables.
Can we just agree that there likely be getting some level of COLA (barring deflation over the next few months), but exact formula variables number will not be known until OCTOBER.
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For Pete’s sake, use some common sense. Of course it’s an estimate and no one will know the answer today. Using the most recent month as the average reflects current CPI trend. We all know it can go in either direction over the next several months.
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The last trustee report projects the Part B premium to be $185 for 2025.
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To calculate a COLA, the SSA compares the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year to the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the last year when a COLA was approved. But it sounds as if you calculated your 1.7% by comparing last year’s third quarter with this years first quarter. This is like comparing apples to oranges! I assume the previous COLAs listed are using the correct 3rd quarter vs 3rd quarter CPI. This is your third article dated for today, so not short on content, but must be bored with nothing to do today. So use some of your extra free time to adjust those previous years to miscalculate the same quarters as you insist on doing year after year. Or at least wait until the first month of the 3rd quarter data is available to start talking about 2025 COLA.
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Fully aware of how to calculate. I am merely pointing out that at this point it would be 1.7. Reflecting last six month trend. Depending on going forward, it could go up or down.
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