2013
I have said it a hundred times Medicare (and Social Security) needs attention and modification to be sustainable and affordable over the long term. If you accept the news reports, you may conclude that Obamacare has dealt with the Medicare problem, but that is not true. If you hear about the moderation of health care spending in the last couple of years, you may conclude the problem is solved, but that is not true. If you read the Health and Human Services Department press releases you may conclude great strides have been made in lowering costs, but that is not true.
If you want the truth about the status of both Medicare and Social Security, you must look at the Trustee Reports absent the political spin. Both reports contain the caveats and concerns that don’t make the headlines. Both illustrate the possible changes required in both programs to keep them going, changes that you don’t hear about and probably don’t want to hear about.
Here is the Medicare Trustees Report and the Social Security Trustees Report, just read the first several pages and summary conclusions.
I would also urge you to read the full article highlighted below. I know Professor Kotlikoff and have discussed this issue several times with him. He takes a long term view which is something politicians avoid like the plague unless it serves their short term purposes.
OPINION June 24, 2013, 7:09 p.m. ET
Medicare by the Scary Numbers
White House spin pretends otherwise, but the unfunded liabilities may exceed $100 trillion.
By JOHN C. GOODMAN And LAURENCE J. KOTLIKOFF
Even before the latest Medicare trustees report came out at the end of May, the White House spin masters had already crafted a story to go with it. Medicare’s finances have improved, we’re being told. The trust fund will last longer. The unfunded liability is lower. One of the reasons is said to be ObamaCare.
The core of the new health reform doesn’t kick in until next year, but already it’s improving things for seniors? Here’s the real story:
In their report, the trustees acknowledge that current law envisages dramatic reductions in future Medicare outlays which may be “difficult to sustain.” The president’s new budget also paints a rosy picture of Medicare’s present and future finances.
Yet even with these unrealistic assumptions about Medicare costs, the future looks bleak. The unfunded liability in Medicare, the trustees tell us, is $34 trillion over the next 75 years.
Looking indefinitely into the future, the unfunded liability is $43 trillion—almost three times the size of today’s economy. Based on more plausible assumptions, such as those reflected in the “alternative” scenario for Medicare produced by the Congressional Budget Office in June 2012, the long-term shortfall is more than $100 trillion.
via John Goodman and Laurence Kotlikoff: Medicare by the Scary Numbers – WSJ.com.
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 