2013
Sort of, yes, no, maybe.
The problem in answering this question is that there are so many parts of the Affordable Care Act that when talking about repeal (which by the way will never happen), you must look at Medicare, Medicaid, administrative costs, government subsidies and taxes. So, you could repeal certain parts of the law and save money, but repealing the law entirely actually adds to the deficit. For example, by repealing the Marketplace subsidies, increased outlays for Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for certain small employers there would be savings of $1,171 billion according to the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation.
On the other hand, the ACA also includes a number of other provisions related to health care that are estimated to reduce net federal outlays (primarily for Medicare). Repealing those provisions would increase other direct spending in the next decade by an estimated $711 billion.
The Law increases federal revenues, mostly by increasing the Hospital Insurance (HI) payroll tax and extending it to net investment income for high-income taxpayers, and imposing fees or excise taxes on certain manufacturers and insurers. Repealing those provisions would reduce revenues by an estimated $569 billion over the next ten years.
Taking everything into account, the CBO estimates that over the next ten years repealing Obamacare will add $109 billion to federal budget deficits. [see note below from the CBO]
This only confirms that repealing Obamacare as it is constructed is highly unlikely and impractical. Just as unlikely of course is the possibility that the promises of the Law will come to pass. Projecting the impact of any federal law ten years into the future is virtually impossible. Obamacare with its complexity and links to other laws makes that especially problematic.😕
Given the many benefits of Obamacare that are real or perceived for millions of Americans, we are now trapped in a new massive entitlement that will grow in costs and liabilities. The real question we should be asking is what increases in taxes, etc. will be necessary to keep this going for the next decade. 📈
Note: Projections of the budgetary impact of H.R. 6079 are quite uncertain because they are based, in large part, on projections of the effects of the ACA, which are themselves highly uncertain. Assessing the effects of making broad changes in the nation’s health care and health insurance systems requires estimates of a broad array of technical, behavioral, and economic factors. Separating the incremental effects of the provisions in the ACA that affect spending for ongoing programs and revenue streams becomes more uncertain as the time since enactment grows. The recent Supreme Court decision that essentially made the expansion of the Medicaid program a state option has also increased the uncertainty of the estimates. However, CBO and JCT, in consultation with outside experts, have devoted a great deal of care and effort to the analysis of health care legislation in the past few years, and the agencies have strived to develop estimates that are in the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes.
Related articles
- Obamacare and deficits: Reality check (money.cnn.com)
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 