November 2014 🔴 a tough time for the Administration

2014

Election Day is November 4th. That’s the day happy and unhappy Americans will elect a new Congress. In advance, Republicans will want to make the Administration look bad and Democrats to make it look good.

But both those goals may be out of the hands of either party (absent some dirty tricks).

There are two important things that will happen around November 4th. The announcement of the 2015 Social Security COLA, if any, and the start of the 2015 open enrollment period for Obamacare exchange plans scheduled for November 15th.

Despite the fact the Administration has nothing to do with the Social Security COLA, it will be blamed if there is little or no increase in the benefits which is a likely scenario based on current inflation.

When it comes to Obamacare, there are two risks. First, if there are substantial increases in premiums, participants will not be happy especially if they are enrolled in high deductible and out-of-pocket cost plans that reimbursed little during 2014, again a likely scenario for many people.

Second, there is the possibility that plans that did not do well monetarily will decline to be offered in 2015 forcing some insured Americans to once again change health benefit plans (and doctors).

To make this almost surreal, the insurance companies are supposed to submit their 2015 premiums by the end of May 2014. Good guessing with that.

Neither of these results are the direct responsibility of the Administration, but of course, the result of the construction of the Affordable Care Act which is a Democratic responsibility.

To mitigate the impact of all this, the Administration could increase the Obamacare individual tax credit subsidies and/or again increase the transition payments to insurance companies designed to offset losses during the first year or two of the Law’s operation. However, taking such action presents an easy target for Republicans.

Interestingly, these scenarios directly impact two groups of likely Democratic voters; the elderly and the young. Democrats may want to erect an alter to high inflation and low health care utilization for the next seven months.