After Obamacare 30 million uninsured and majority exempt from penalties

Here is what the Congressional Budget Office says in a June 2014 report; “Payments of Penalties for Being Uninsured Under the Affordable Care Act: 2014 Update”

After the initial enrollment, there are still 30 million uninsured Americans. An initial reading of the ACA may give the impression that these Americans will be fined for not obtaining coverage. Not so. There are many exemptions contained in the law and the Administration has added additional exemptions as well.

With so many remaining uninsured, the issues of uncompensated care and the resulting cost-shifting to the insured population remains with us. If the numbers are accurate, about 21% of the uninsured obtained coverage via Obamacare.

CBO and JCT estimate that 23 million uninsured people in 2016 will qualify for one or more of those exemptions. Of the remaining 7 million uninsured people, CBO and JCT estimate that some will be granted exemptions from the penalty because of hardship or for other reasons. Among the uninsured people subject to the penalty, many are expected to voluntarily report on their tax returns that they are uninsured and to pay the amount owed. However, other people will try to avoid payments. CBO and JCT’s estimates of the number of people who will pay penalties account for likely compliance rates as well as the ability of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to administer and collect the penalty payments.

All told, CBO and JCT estimate that about 4 million people will pay a penalty because they are uninsured in 2016 (a figure that includes uninsured dependents who have the penalty paid on their behalf ). An estimated $4 billion will be collected from those who are uninsured in 2016, and, on average, an estimated $5 billion will be collected per year over the 2017–2024 period.

Those estimates differ from projections that CBO and JCT made in September 2012, when the agencies last published such estimates. About 2 million fewer people are now projected to pay the penalty for being uninsured in 2016, and collections are now expected to be about $3 billion less for that year.

The decrease in the number of people who are projected to pay the penalty largely stems from an increase in CBO and JCT’s projection of the number of people who will be exempt from the penalty. That increase is attributable in part to regulations issued since September 2012 by the Departments of Health and Human Services and the Treasury and in part to technical updates and changes in the economic outlook.