Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

The 30-Year Cost of OBBBA

JUL 15, 2025 

BUDGETS & PROJECTIONS

The recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would add an estimated $4.1 trillion to the debt through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034, based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Over 30 years, we estimate OBBBA will add $19 trillion to the debt as written and $32 trillion if made permanent, before considering dynamic effects. As a result, debt will rise to alarming levels.

We estimate that by FY 2054 the bill will:

• Increase nominal debt by $19 trillion as enacted, or $32 trillion if made permanent.
• Increase real (inflation-adjusted) debt in 2031 dollars by $12 trillion as enacted, or $20 trillion if made permanent.
• Boost debt to 176 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as enacted, or 191 percent of GDP if made permanent, compared to 154 percent under CBO’s January baseline.
• Increase deficits to 8.6 percent of GDP as enacted, or 9.6 percent of GDP if made permanent, compared to 7.2 percent under CBO’s baseline.
• Increase interest costs to 6.1 percent of GDP as enacted, or 6.6 percent of GDP if made permanent, compared to 5.3 percent under CBO’s baseline.

These estimates do not include dynamic effects of the legislation, which are likely to boost near-term economic output and also increase interest rates. CBO’s dynamic score of the House bill, along with other comprehensive dynamic estimates, suggests these effects would worsen the debt impact of the bill – particularly over the long term.

Projections also do not incorporate the impact of changes to tariff policy. While tariffs can generate significant amounts of revenue, there has been uncertainty as to the final size and permanency of recent tariffs.

This piece is in part an update to an analysis released in June.