The ignorance of Trump and the people who believe him is amazing. The majority of comments thought this was possible and agreed with the idea.
To have tariffs at a level to replace income taxes would require extremely high, broad-based tariffs (likely averaging 40-60%+ on most imports) and would have severe negative impacts on the U.S. economy, far outweighing any revenue gains. It is widely viewed by economists as impractical or impossible to sustain at that scale without major behavioral changes, trade collapse, retaliation, and economic contraction.
And you still believe Trump?
In fiscal year (FY) 2025 (October 2024–September 2025), the U.S. federal government collected roughly $2.66 trillion in individual income taxes.
This figure represents about 50.5% of total federal revenue (around $5.23–5.26 trillion). Individual income taxes are the largest single source of federal revenue.
As of mid-2026, estimates for full-year FY 2026 customs duties (tariffs) generally range from roughly $150–300+ billion, far above pre-2025 levels (~$70–80 billion annually) but subject to ongoing uncertainty.
Key Recent Projections and Data
• Tax Policy Center (TPC, April 2026): ~$185 billion in FY 2026 from tariffs.
• CBO (February 2026 baseline): Elevated customs duties contribute to higher revenues (total federal revenue ~$5.6 trillion in FY 2026). Specific tariff projections were adjusted downward after legal changes (e.g., ~$17 billion reduction for 2026 in one update), with tariffs adding hundreds of billions over the decade but declining as a share of GDP over time due to import adjustments.
• Tax Foundation: Additional tariffs (Section 232 and temporary Section 122) projected to raise ~$74–98 billion net in 2026 (conventional basis, varying by modeling).
• Actual collections so far: ~$144 billion through February 2026 (strong growth from prior years), with monthly figures fluctuating (e.g., declines in some spring months amid policy shifts and potential refunds). FY 2025 total was ~$195 billion.
Context and Caveats
• Tariffs are a small but growing share of total federal revenue (still well below individual income taxes at ~$2.5+ trillion). They are volatile and can reduce other tax collections (e.g., income/payroll taxes) via higher prices, lower imports, or slower growth.
And American consumers pay the tariffs in any case.
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