Beware assumptions

Whenever there is a new proposal or projection; M4A, expanded Social Security, Medicare’s costs, etc. the projected costs and consequences are based on many assumptions, sometimes assumptions linked to other assumptions.

Merely tweaking assumptions can change something into whatever you want it to be. And frequently the assumptions used prove wrong … because they are assumptions generally conjured up by some individual.

In addition, many times assumptions attempt to predict the behavior of individuals…that is especially risky.

So, before you jump on this or that bandwagon of promises, check out the assumptions used in making those promises.

One comment

  1. Another reason the assumptions are often so wrong is because the numbers are so very big. For example, a COLA of one tenth of one percent (0.1%) on the average monthly benefit of $1404 for 42 million social security beneficiaries (as of Dec 2017) would drain another $58,968,000 a month from the social security fund or about $707.6 billion a year. A new program like M4A, every number is a very large assumption and they will just compound the error of margin until nothing looks realistic or they will play with the number to make them look acceptable. I believe it is easier to measure vast distances of moving objects in the universe than to try to guess the actions of humans and their politicians.


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