Never give up!
Expert Guesses Adam M. Grossman | Jan 30, 2022
DOES IT MAKE SENSE to heed the advice of experts? This doesn’t seem like a hard question. I certainly listen to my doctor and to many others with specialized expertise. As a society, we all rely on experts—from civil engineers to airline pilots to firefighters—for our health and safety. At the same time, however, human judgment seems to be riddled with flaws. Consider these examples:
After reading his senior thesis, Michael Lewis’s advisor at Princeton University gave him this advice: Whatever you do, don’t try to make a living as a writer.
After one performance at the Grand Ole Opry, the concert manager told Elvis he should go back to his prior career as a truck driver.
Steven Spielberg applied to USC’s School of Theater, Film and Television three times and was rejected all three times.
J.K. Rowling’s first Harry Potter manuscript was rejected by a dozen publishers before one finally took a chance on it.
When he graduated college, Malcolm Gladwell wanted to be an advertising copywriter but was turned down by 28 of the 28 agencies he applied to.
Early in his career, Walt Disney was fired from the Kansas City Star. His editor said Disney “had no good ideas” and “lacked imagination.”
Before winning an Emmy, a Grammy, an Oscar and a Tony, a teenage John Legend was denied a spot on the talent show Star Search.
When Tom Brady entered the NFL draft, 198 players were chosen ahead of him.
When a young William Sharpe submitted a paper on the Capital Asset Pricing Model to the Journal of Finance, it was rejected. Years later, the Nobel committee cited that paper when it awarded Sharpe its prize in economics.
Bessemer Venture Partners maintains a list on its website of the investments the company evaluated but decided against. These include Apple, Google, Facebook and Tesla.
My personal favorite: Harvard Business School didn’t accept Warren Buffett.
In other words, human judgment is far from perfect. Even experts seem to get things wrong. But when it comes to investments, does that mean you should never rely on expert opinion? How should you think about this question?
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Source: Expert Guesses – HumbleDollar