Based on the April CPI data, The Senior Citizen League (TSCL) Social Security policy analyst Mary Johnson slightly lowered her 2023 Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) estimate from 8.9% to 8.6% thanks to the slight moderation in the rate of inflation. That would still be the highest COLA since 1981.
For that level of COLA the CPI-W will have to grow to an average of 291.17832 for July, August and September from the April figure of 284.575. That means a continued escalation of inflation which is possible but unlikely.
It’s far more reasonable to stick with a more realistic COLA and hope inflation stabilizes or moderates.