Beware those Social Security expert predictions 

Based on the April CPI data, The Senior Citizen League (TSCL) Social Security policy analyst Mary Johnson slightly lowered her 2023 Social Security cost of living adjustment (COLA) estimate from 8.9% to 8.6% thanks to the slight moderation in the rate of inflation. That would still be the highest COLA since 1981.

Source: Social Security Benefits Lose 40% of Buying Power Since 2000; Latest 2023 COLA Estimate Drops – 401K Specialist

For that level of COLA the CPI-W will have to grow to an average of 291.17832 for July, August and September from the April figure of 284.575. That means a continued escalation of inflation which is possible but unlikely.

It’s far more reasonable to stick with a more realistic COLA and hope inflation stabilizes or moderates.


  1. No one knows what the COLA will be until Mid-Oct., My guess is 7.5%. For me anything over 6% and I will be paying Federal income tax on part of my Social Security. Time to get them to index the trigger amount for taxing SS to inflation.


      1. With almost daily increases in gas prices and problems with bird flu causing chicken and egg prices to spike, I know it will be more than your 6% guess.


  2. I don’t consider the estimates until at least August when we know the first of the 3 months that the COLA will be based on. Before that it is just a guesstimate. How accurate are humans at predicting what will happen tomorrow, let alone 3 months from now. COLA will be what it will be and I can’t control it. So I plan for no COLA until COLA is officially announced, not these worthless estimates. Spending money you don’t have is a poor habit to get into if one wants to live a low stress life.


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