Be careful who you believe

The projection of a 2023 COLA at 8.6% is based on questionable assumptions. As I posted a few days ago based on where the CPI-W stands as of May the more realistic COLA will be about 7.3%

“The consumer price index data for May, released Friday, shows that prices have risen by 8.6% over the past 12 months before a seasonal adjustment, the largest since December 1981, and 1% from April to May. April statistics showed prices rose by 8.3% over 12 months and 0.3% from March.”

“Based on this data, the Senior Citizens League estimates the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for 2023 could be 8.6%, as it predicted last month. This would be the highest COLA since 1981.”

“Mary Johnson, the league’s Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, bases monthly COLA estimates on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as the CPI-W. In May, the league pegged the 2023 COLA at 8.6%.”

Source: https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2022/06/10/social-security-cola-estimate-set-at-8-6-for-2023-as-inflation-rises-in-may/?kw=Social%20Security%20COLA%20Estimate%20Set%20at%208.6%25%20for%202023%20as%20Inflation%20Rises%20in%20May&utm_source=email&utm_medium=enl&utm_campaign=lifehealthweekender&utm_content=20220612&utm_term=tadv

For the COLA to reach 8.6% the CPI-W must steadily increase over the next several months so that the average for July, August and September is much higher than it is today.

Is that possible? Yes, but today that’s a big assumption. AND MORE IMPORTANT, we better hope it doesn’t happen.