Updated estimate for 2023 Social Security COLA

Based on the CPI-W for July 2022, the 2023 COLA could be 8.9%

The actual COLA will be based on the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2022 compared with the third quarter of 2021.


  1. In past monthly COLA posts you said “268.412 is the average CPI-W for July, August and September 2021”. I’ve been using 268.421 for the 2021 average. Asking if you accidentally flipped the “21” to “12” at some point. My data points are 267.789 268.387 269.086


    1. Naturally, this administration isn’t stupid they wait until the calculations for SS COLA is calculated to lower the Inflation rate, so we miss getting another higher COLA. As you recall in 2021, inflation rose after the COLA was announced another 2 points. Now when the COLA was 10.1 all of a sudden it drops to the 8’s and how much lower will it get so we can’t ever get ahead of the game with a little extra to off set the percentages we lost last year in regard to true inflation rates rather than calculation from the third quarter Then Medicare raised our premiums sky high to an unreasonable amount for cost because of an Alzheimer’s drug that wasn’t as costly as presumed. We were supposed to get that amount back so perhaps they won’t change our premium any since they were supposed to reimburse us for the difference of cost and the rise of Medicare premiums. This Administration isn’t stupid when it comes to cheating seniors out of the REAL cost of inflation rather than the 3rd quarter calculation. yet we have had to pay the exorbitant prices during this year. I hope that it doesn’t drop lower than your projection because seniors are really struggling trying to “rob Peter to pay Paul” due to the way our COLA is calculated. Thank you for the update


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