Is this our future?

Declining fertility rates, an aging population, working longer, a declining worker to retiree ratio and redefining retirement out of necessity – all factors affecting our future, well the future of todays thirty year olds anyway.

Be­cause “much of the work­force of 2050 has al­ready been born,” the tra­jec­tory is clear, Prof. Good­hart says.

As the la­bor-force growth slows, he pre­dicts, work­ers will wield more bar­gain­ing power, caus­ing wages to rise. That will keep in­fltion high, while in­equal­ity within countries will fall.

Peo­ple in their 40s and 50s will save less for re­tire­ment as more of them de­lay child rear­ing and wind up con­tin­u­ing to sup­port fam­i­lies dur­ing their high­est-earn­ing years. The of­fi­cial re­tirement age for pro­grams in­clud­ing So­cial Se­cu­rity will rise, per­haps to 70 or even above, he says.

What Old Age Might Be Like for Today’s 30-Year-Olds, Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2022

I mention all this because many Americans and some politicians seem to think Social Security can continue as is even with higher benefits.

Even if all earnings were subject to the payroll tax, only 63% of the funding gap is closed. Social Security remains insolvent. The trust funds will run out in 2059 at which point all beneficiaries will face a sudden 12% benefit cut.

11 comments

  1. I thought SS was becoming insolvent in 2034-2035 and your statement pushes it all the way to 2059?!!? Smith Smallwood

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  2. Allowing 2 million illegals into our country and setting forth a path towards citizenship will certainly increase the probability of higher taxable wages. However, there also needs to be a path to increase productive work so these new found citizens can compete with our existing workforce for those wages to realize those projected taxable wages.

    The increase in the number of voters can only come from the handouts created by this administration.

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    1. Illegal immigrants pay tens of billions in all forms of taxes each year, including over $15 to SS and Medicare even while ineligible for benefits. Those that don’t pay are typically paid under the table by employers taking advantage of paying them low wages and avoiding payroll taxes themselves.

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  3. “As the la­bor-force growth slows, he pre­dicts, work­ers will wield more bar­gain­ing power, caus­ing wages to rise. That will keep in­fltion high, while in­equal­ity within countries will fall.”

    Don’t know about that. Too many variables.

    What I see as inevitable is that, like it or not, the inequality –between– countries will have to fall. Factories/businesses in the U.S. can outsource for so long until eventually wages are higher in Mexico/Asia and/or wages in U.S. fall.

    The Great Levelling.

    Is there something inherent in America that says our standard of living will –always– be above average for the rest of the world?

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  4. What role automation/mechanization? A declining worker/retiree ratio is offset by increased productivity. I see shorter work weeks and earlier retirement.

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  5. It won’t be my future as I will probably absent the planet before then. Hopefully it won’t be the future for any of the kids, grandkids or great grandkids.

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  6. The predictions for the future of social security are fairly certain if nothing is done.

    I may live to be 77.0 years old but I would not have been able to stay at the job that I retired from for health reasons. So what could I do? Work as a Walmart greeter?

    But for the life of me, I can’t figure out why we are sending billions of dollars to defend Ukraine’s borders and nothing on securing our southern border. Could it be that the powers to be want to increase our young population base by making them all legal? Japan has had to let foreigners into their country to work because they have to many old people to do all the work.

    Or do they just want more democratic voters? Silly question. Democratic voters is the answer because all they want is power. If they cared about the people they would have fix social security by now.

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    1. “Nothing” on our southern border? That simply is not true. Defending Ukraine from Russia is essential. Think of the signal we woukd send to Russia, China and all of Europe if we stood by and did nothing. Americans need to start thinking globally or we will be in deep trouble like it or not.

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      1. Yes! The Great Levelling.

        “Americans need to start thinking globally or we will be in deep trouble like it or not.”

        “America” worked hard to get where we are… and we were lucky.

        “No man is an island entire of itself…

        And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

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      2. What signal did we send China with our withdraw from Afghanistan? If I was Taiwan, I be scared. Our military cannot meet recruiting goals. My son can’t wait to get out because of the present state of wokeness in our military. We gave Ukraine so many 155 mm shells that the US army has to buy replacement shells from South Korea. From a manufacturing point of view in the US, that is just sad. We can’t even make enough munitions to arm ourselves. What does that tell Russia, China, and North Korea?

        As far as the border crisis goes, Russia has sent less troops across the Ukraine border than the 2 million plus illegal immigrant invasion from the south into the United States. I am not even sure if the present effort on our southern border is even a speed bump.

        The countries of the world do not have a great positive track record of containing Imperialist leaders without a world war. I even consider the Gulf War I a world war because of the coalition of 35 countries that fought against Iraq. Ukraine is a Europe problem first and we should support them through our NATO agreement. We should not be financing the Ukraine war. Yes, we must balance that with what happens if we don’t finance their war but we need to take of America first, then we can help the world.

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