CBOs Long Term Projections for Social Security
Social Security’s Finances, With Scheduled Benefits. CBO projects that if Social Security paid benefits as scheduled, spending on the program would increase from 5.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 to 7.0 percent in 2096, and revenues would remain around 4.6 percent of GDP over the same period. The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2033, and the Disability Insurance Trust Fund would be exhausted in 2048. If the trust funds were combined, their exhaustion date would be in 2033.CBO 12-16-22
In CBO’s projections, Social Security’s actuarial deficit over the next 75 years is equal to 1.7 percent of GDP, or 4.9 percent of taxable payroll. That is, the federal government could maintain the necessary trust fund balances through 2096 if it immediately, and permanently, raised payroll tax rates by about 4.9 percentage points (or implemented an equivalent reduction in benefits or combination of tax increases and benefit reductions). After 2096, however, the gap between revenues and outlays would widen, and shortfalls would continue to increase.
Sum of you may buy into the progressive solution of taxing all wages without limit. If that were done Social Security remains insolvent. The trust funds will run out in 2059 at which point all beneficiaries will face a sudden 12% benefit cut. CRFB Calculator.