Our demographics are working against us

Here are some projections that help explain the long-term problems facing Social Security and why immigration is important to our future [unless we can convince Americans to have more babies]

The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affects the economy and the federal budget. For example, the size of the population ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people employed; likewise, the size of the population age 65 or older affects the number of beneficiaries of federal programs such as Social Security and Medicare. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections, which underlie the agency’s baseline budget projections and economic forecast that will be published later this year.

  • Population. In CBO’s projections, the Social Security area population—the relevant population for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits and the measure of population used in this report—increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. As growth of the population age 65 or older outpaces growth of younger age groups, the population is projected to continue to become older.
  • Population Growth. Population growth is generally projected to slow between 2023 and 2053, averaging 0.3 percent per year over that period. That growth will be increasingly driven by immigration as fertility rates remain below the rate that would be required for a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration.
From the Congressional Budget Office.


  1. If Americans weren’t paying so much in taxes, perhaps they would have more children. I’d definitely rather have taxpayers have more children than welfare queens.


  2. Social Security is more a problem than just immigration. People now live longer and many more reach retirement age than when the program was envisioned in the 1930 era.
    Just tinkering with employment tax and expanding wage limits won’t do it. Major changes are needed in the structure of the program and the immigration problem is a whole mess in and of itself.


    1. It’s not immigration that’s the problem, it’s the decline in the ratio of working Americans to retirees. Unless Americans have more children, that problem will get worse. How to we increase the working payroll tax paying population?

      The reality is tinkering with the SS will solve the problem. modest changes in the payroll tax, minor changes in application of the COLA and taxable wages done right in modest steps prospectively along with future change done as necessary – not ignored for decades make the program solvent.

      If politicians would stop playing politics, the needed changes could be made and workers wouldn’t even notice that changes.


  3. We only have to look toward Japan to see the effects of an aging population with a birth rate of 1.34. A rate of 2.1 is required to sustain a population. United States is 1.64 (in 2020). I am all for LEGAL immigration.

    Some people like to believe that social security is not a Ponzi scheme, but social security requires new workers to support the older workers at the top of the pyramid. The CBO gets it.

    This is a very complex issue dealing with many social-economic realities. There are many, many government policies the affect reasons why families do not have more children. When it comes to this issue, there is one which I do not understand. Why is the government pushing multiple genders and abortion vs ensuring a stable family. Looking at abortion strictly as a government accepted form of birth control in some states and political parties, which I am not say it is or is not, it still takes a man and woman to have a child that must not be aborted. Pushing the transgenderism onto our young children makes no sense to me either. Transgenders can’t have children and men can’t birth children either.

    What is the secret plan here? Is that why the border is open. This goes back farther than Biden. Now it is just unrestricted now at the border. Why would congress deal with the issue and make them legal so that they can work above the table?


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