Long-Term Projections Paint a Bleak Fiscal Picture
June 28, 2023
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its Long-Term Budget Outlook today, which shows debt rising to 181 percent of GDP by 2053 under CBO’s current baseline. Although the long-term outlook has modestly improved due to the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, it remains unsustainable.
You can read more about the Long-Term Budget Outlook in our summary of the report. We will provide further analysis later today.
The following is a statement from Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget:
Today’s long-term projections show that we have made some recent progress, but there is still a tremendous amount of work needed to put our fiscal situation on sound footing.
Even under the latest projections, debt will eclipse its record level in just six years and reach nearly double the size of the economy in 30 years. This level of debt would be truly unprecedented, and it is largely due to the rapid growth of Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the debt while revenue fails to keep pace.
Though the Fiscal Responsibility Act was an important step forward, it can only be the start of our efforts to get the debt under control. The FRA didn’t address health care, Social Security, or tax revenue. There is no way to put our debt on a sustainable course without looking at these three parts of the budget.
Policymakers need to stop demagoguing Social Security and Medicare and start leveling with the American people about the serious challenges these programs face. In just the next ten years, three major federal trust funds – for highways, Social Security, and Medicare – will face insolvency. If allowed to occur for Social Security, that will mean a 26 percent across-the-board benefit cut for all seniors, regardless of how much they depend on the program. This do-nothing plan is unacceptable.
Politicians also need to stop taking pledges that make solutions harder, including pledges that impede efforts to cut costly tax breaks, lower health care costs, raise new revenue, or save Social Security from insolvency.
Policymakers should build on the bipartisan success of the Fiscal Responsibility Act with more deficit reduction and a bipartisan fiscal commission to take a holistic approach to fixing our budget. Time is of the essence; we simply cannot afford to keep borrowing at this unsustainable rate.
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
A sizable percentage of the voters want spending upon their dependency needs in the present.
Our Congressional legislatures are responding to their constituents demands in the present.
And the future be damned. “The frog in the warming pan has already been cooked”.
Excess spending over revenue in an exponential rate will continue. We are already the largest debtor nation and will experience monetary hyperinflation as the spending trend continues.
I recommend planning appropriately.
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The problem with raising taxes is that spending more soon follows. There is a great demand in Washington for student debt payoff, more green spending and numerous other programs. More tax revenue would open the floodgates and deficits would remain the same or higher.
Cut spending now and raise taxes afterward. The deficits would go down. If the borrowing keeps going up, they don’t need anymore of my money to do it.
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The only thing every member of Congress cares about is getting re-elected! They spend and then spend some more to buy votes. We need term limits now.
Vote ’em out!
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How, exactly, will term limits help? Even if you are the most honest ,intelligent, dedicated legislator, you can’t get anything done if you don’t get elected
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Debt at this level is destructive. Leadership is the key component, and I pray God helps our Republic find such Leaders-
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Debt has brought down empires. In the United States, I believe that wokeness is working to end our way of life by speeding up our spending. The woke progressive left wants free everything that we cannot pay for but the right also likes buying votes too. Neither the right or left, republican or democrat, really wants to stop this train from destruction.
I was hoping that I wouldn’t live to see it but I fear that I might live just long enough. I am trying to save a future for my grandchildren but I seem like I can’t get my politicians voted out of office.
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“The FRA didn’t address health care, Social Security, or tax revenue. There is no way to put our debt on a sustainable course without looking at these three parts of the budget. ”
Three parts. Most countries are in debt. Some much worse than the U.S.
We have among the highest GDP per capita and among the lowest tax burden as a share of GDP.
May be it’s time to woke up and do the math. Pay down our debts. Increase our education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
You can’t take it with you. Invest in our future. It’s for the kids.
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