CBO: Social Security is Ten Years from Insolvency

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently published detailed long-term projections for Social Security that project the financial outlook for the program over the next 75 years. Under CBO’s projections, the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will exhaust its reserves by Fiscal Year (FY) 2032 and the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) trust fund will become insolvent by calendar year 2052 (the Social Security Trustees project OASI insolvency by 2033 and the SSDI trust fund to remain solvent over the next 75 years). On a theoretically combined basis, assuming revenue is reallocated in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, the SocialSecurity trust funds will be insolvent by FY 2033, when today’s 57-year-olds reach the normal retirement age and today’s youngest retirees turn 72. Upon insolvency, all beneficiaries regardless of age, income, or need will see their benefits cut by 25 percent across-the-board.

Interest Costs Will Grow the Fastest Over the Next 30 Years

According to the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) long-term baseline, federal spending as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow to 29.1 percent over the next three decades. Driving a large part of that growth is spending on interest payments to service the national debt.

By 2051, spending on interest will be the single largest line item in the federal budget, surpassing Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and all other mandatory and discretionary spending programs.

Source: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

And still no concerted effort to address the issue by Congress, all proposals to fix Social Security over the last several years largely ignored. Any mention of changes to Social Security are met with claims of “slash,” “cut” and the like.

And interest costs, who cares, right?

6 comments

  1. Did you see the idiot claim that the most recent legislative action reduced the deficit $3 Trillion over the next ten years? Did you see the idiot claim that he reduced the annual deficit by $1 Trillion in the past year? The fact is that the CBO predicts our federal deficit will increase by $16 – $17 Trillion over the next ten years, approaching $50 Trillion by 2034.

    And, given the two idiots in the lead for the 2024 election, if one is re-elected, the track record is crap and both, both have engineered a policy position of no change to Social Security. You need to read this WSJ article – The Biden-Trump plan to cut social security: Doing nothing won’t protect beneficiaries. It’ll subject them to automatic 23% cuts in 10 years.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biden-trump-plan-to-cut-social-security-mccarthy-debt-ceiling-payroll-tax-automatic-trust-fund-6a6c7586

    That’s the best they can do? Yes, that’s the best they can do!

    Get your wallets out as we become just another social democratic state where the government knows better how to spend what you earned. A la Health reform, most Americans want the best health care, social security, medicare YOUR money will buy!

    But it is worse, because they are making decisions for generations too young to vote, and generations yet unborn.

    There is a bipartisan, intergenerationally-savvy solution. But it would require telling all Americans the truth, and confirming it in their benefits checks and paychecks.

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    1. Here lie the problem. The truth. You can’t trust the politicians. It used to be that the media would challenge the politicians for the truth but that doesn’t even happen. One party can’t even tell you what a women is and you expect them to understand what the social security truth is? I am sure that if the one party did tell the truth the other party would call it fake news.

      All this BS has to be by design now. Keep the country divided.

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  2. Continued larger and larger deficit spending by Congress is baked in to the institution. To hell with cutting spending for a balanced budget, if there is such a concept now a-days.
    Congress is responding to the escalating demands of their constituents to spend more to help them live better. I.E: Didn’t you hear now cities are asking for Federal money to “solve” their homeless problem?
    “The frog has already been cooked in the boiling water and just a matter of time before it’s baked to a crisp”.

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  3. Terms are 2, 4 & 6 years for Representatives, President & Senators. Problem is 10 years away. Fix SS is below ‘get re-elected’ on their to do lists. Maybe the one’s planning to retire will have on top of their lists.

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  4. Interesting that the CBO got involved. Did Congress not believe the trustees reports over the last few decades and asked the CBO to look into it? The CBO report is stating that the problem is worse so is congress finally going act? Stay tune to presidential election year cycle 2032 for answers.

    I want to know which group will tar and feather members of congress. Will it be the seniors if their benefits are cut? Or will it be the young workers who will pay more in taxes to cover the shortfall?

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  5. This is a huge problem and it requires a concerted effort by more than just a bare majority of the house and senate. There has to be buy in by most of the pols to come to a solution. Right now, they are not at that point.
    I’m not concerned about the claims of insolvency since the majority of SSA bills are paid from current income. That can be adjusted upward by increasing the payroll tax.

    What concerns me is the growing interest payments that are caused by huge borrowing each year. Deficit spending needs to stop unless there is a compelling reason for it.

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