I often read about people planning for retirement and their confidence in their thirty plus year planning. All the projections say they have X percentage of success because that’s what the past performance says.
Remember Fukushima?
All the data looking back 100 years said the maximum water surge would be 15 feet. The engineering company wanted to build the wall to 30 feet. The government objected to the added cost. In the end they compromised at 22-1/2 feet still way above the worst case projection.
The actual surge that caused devastation was 45 feet.
Build a large cushion into your retirement income plan … just in case. Starting retirement with 70% even 80% income replacement could be risky
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
This is off subject but I could not figure out how to ask my question on HumbleDollar.
Rick Dunn stated “In the analysis above (table of costs) it appears you are comparing Fidelity’s Zero funds with Vanguards Index funds. These are not exactly the same. The indexes they follow are close cousins, but the rules with Fidelity will not allow you to transfer those funds to another firm-you would have to sell them. But, if you like Fidelity it is a good low cost option.”
I am considering rolling my Fidelity 401(k) into a Fidelity IRA. Can you clarify the above? Thanks so much for your help.
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Long term care.
The main foreseeable glitch in our retirement. Not insurmountable for a year or two, but it’s lurking in the back of my mind.
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People incessantly plan for retirement now. I just walked out with no 30 year scheme or whatever. You never know whether 80% or 110% will work after 20 years. It’s always better to have as much stockpiles as you can though.
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What counts is that you have a good steady income, worry free, coming in 1,5,10 20+ years post retirement. How much one needs in the distant future is categorically unknown.
How to deal with this: have equity that appreciates in value over a long time. Diversified stocks that yield dividend and growth, rental income on land or housing, rich older close relatives that have you in their wills (just kidding) is the way to go.
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