Inflation rate is down from the third quarter of 2023 and that’s what counts for the 2025 COLA. This assumes inflation does not increase from here on out and above the 304.284 CPI-W index for February.
Where are we headed for a 2025 Social Security COLA?
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
it is hard for people to understand that two facts are true. Nominal prices have gone up for groceries. And food cost is a record low as a percentage of income. This is a good representation of the major political divide in America emerging as educated vs non-educated.
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Beware the flaw of averages…
“In 2022, food spending represented 31.2 percent of the lowest quintile’s income, 13.4 percent of income for the middle quintile, and 8.0 percent of income for the highest quintile.”
USDA Economic Research Services
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you are correct that it is the lowest quintile that is most vulnerable. That is why I am truly afraid for the poor if Trump wins. Many of his policy goals – deporting our agricultural workforce, ten percent tariffs, massive cuts to Medicaid, social security, and Medicare, eliminating ACA, and even his proposed cuts for law enforcement – would be devastating for the poor.
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Two things…
IMHO food cost as a percentage of income for the low income is crucial, when 30 percent of your income goes to food, and prices increase 17 percent or more, you have a serious problem*. I would say existential, but I never could grasp what that means.
For those who don’t believe that “inequality” is a serious problem, if food is only 8 percent of your budget, maybe it’s clouding your judgement.
Also, the more things change…
I was looking for historical information on food costs by income group (hard to find), and I found that, apparently food costs (average) as a percentage of income is NOT a record low. That was three years ago…
“The last time Americans spent this much of their money on food, George H.W. Bush was in office, “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” was in theaters and C+C Music Factory was rocking the Billboard charts.”
Wall Street Journal, Feb. 21, 2024
*In addition to other cost increases.
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Thank you for supplying STATISTICS and the source of the info. Prediction: Those that follow you and Condemn Inflation and BLAME you know who, will be FURIOUS if Soc Sec COLA only goes up a percent. They don’t remember that for 3 years prior, Soc Sec increased of 5.9%, 8.7% and 3.2% in 2024, which is a NINETEEN PERCENT increase in 3 years. Funny how we in NJ complain about HIGH (and they are) Property Taxes but NEVER about the EXTRAVAGANT HOME VALUES we enjoy. I seriously believe there is a Rigid Equilibrium of 3 essential financial aspects extant. High Taxes require High Property Value and High Salaries. None of the 3 can be out of step with the others. Seniors move out of NJ “to take the phenomenal HOME EQUITY that’s grown”, not just because of Taxes. DAYS ON MARKET around her are two weeks. Sale price is 110% of List. If you don’t like Property Taxes, then why support Trump and GOP who gave me S.A.L.T. in 2017 that eliminates Itemized Deductions for so many March 16, 2024
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The published rate of inflation has been politically influenced to underestimate the rate of inflation. The current published rate of inflation just does not match what people’s experiences are with paying for food, local taxes, insurance, medical expenses, utilities as well as other needed services. The current bills received tell the facts.
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don’t mix rate of change in costs with prices. Prices usually don’t go down, inflation rates go up and down. All the components of spending are in the CPI-W, but not every retiree is affected by all of them. It’s not politically influence, but there are several different ways of calculating. What you see on the news is not what directly affects COLAs
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“All the components of spending are in the CPI-W, but not every retiree is affected by all of them.”
Pity the renters. Our mortgage; principal, interest, AND taxes, has remained very close to two thousand a month since 2005.
Close to… The cost of utilities has increased. Maintenance and repair costs have increased.And we downsized. Banked the equity and still ended up with two thousand (and twenty) dollar monthly payments (on a smaller house). Plus increasing equity.
Meanwhile, national median rent for a two bedroom apartment has nearly doubled. Six hundred in 2005 to twelve hundred in 2024. With no equity.
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The the feds should make a trip to the grocery store. Of course they’re not worried about inflation. They’re only worried about how much $$ they need to give out. another prime example of the feds cooking the books!
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