We can’t control what others do and we can’t stop misfortune from striking. But we can control our own actions. Those who are financially prudent will most likely enjoy success, even if events don’t always go their way.
Why do people perceive things not supported by the facts?
There is a very good article in the WSJ about how people perceive the economy and how that perception does not reflect reality, especially when it comes to inflation and prices.
What’s wrong with the economy is you.
The link here should let you read the full article.
In The Wall Street Journal’s latest poll of swing states, 74% of respondents said inflation has moved in the wrong direction in the past year.
Better than you think
This assessment, which holds across all seven states, is startling, sobering—and simply not true. I’m not stating an opinion. This isn’t something on which reasonable people can disagree. If hard economic data count for anything, we can say unambiguously that inflation has moved in the right direction in the past year.
In the 12 months through February, inflation, according to the century-old consumer-price index, was 3.2%, compared with 6% a year earlier. Use a slightly different time horizon, or a slightly different measure (such as the index the Federal Reserve prefers) and you get similar results. Take out food and energy—or for that matter look only at food and energy—and inflation is still down.
Yes, some individuals faced higher inflation (someone who bought a house, for instance) but, for the average person, inflation went down.
Collective amnesia?Covid?If you weren’t one of the millions who died, you lived long enough to see the cost of living rise… all over the world. And U.S. inflation was lower than average. The U.S. economy seems to be improving more quickly than most other countries.
Are your food costs increasing?
“Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits”New York Times
“While millions of Americans are being squeezed at the grocery store, major food companies are raking in record profits.”ABC news.
This is why I am voting for Trump. He is the only candidate who understands that to tame inflation, you have to curb demand. His plan to cut social security and Medicare will help cool the economy down. I don’t like some of his other policies, like the total ban on abortion and pulling out of NATO, but will support him because he can fix inflation.
I think we are in a crisis and it requires radical action that only President Trump is bold enough to take. Americans have gone soft. There are many seniors who can go back to work or move in with their children. Let churches take over the care of the poor and sick like the Founding Fathers intended. Biden is ruining this country with all his “do gooder” attitudes.
In the last 3 years 3 months inflation has risen 21%. The play on words is “inflation is down.” Prices that went up due to this inflation haven’t come down. The increases simply slowed down. Salaries haven’t kept up with prices. This isn’t a fallacy or a perception, it’s reality!
I believe Tom Murin has hit the nail on the head. The rate of increase has slowed but it’s still going upward and the previous effects are compounded. It doesn’t bother those who have sufficient incomes to ignore the new higher prices, but for the majority of people, it is a hard reality.
The was a blip increase last month but we are still at about 3.2%, Data from November 2023 show that 57 percent of workers’ wages grew, on an annual basis, more quickly than inflation since November 2022.
Well just look at how Americans spend their money, look in grocery carts, look at all the businesses that sell highly discretionary goods and services. A lot of people are spending a lot of money.
I intended to respond to Dick Quinn’s post about people still spending but Al Lindquist put up a masterpiece so I will defer to said masterpiece. Nothing more need be said.
It’s not “misinformation.” It takes people time to adjust to the new higher prices. They don’t re-set it every year – they compound it. Inflation is down – that doesn’t mean that prices are down.. The rate of increase has slowed. They do know, however, that their pay hasn’t increased as fast as inflation.
You know the saying “perception is reality.”
We know from behavioral economics that people are loss averse. They are losing from inflation.
All you do is refer to the information provided by Stephanie Stamm in the April 4 article in the Journal. She has a graphic of products bought by the average folks and a current price of each. Those same products increased by 36.5% since Biden decided to dump his 2nd tranche of money into the economy. He was warned by numerous folks, many Democrats, what would happen but he wanted to be Santa.
Robert Pozen/S.P. Kothari from the MIT Sloan of business tell us in the Journal yesterday that from January ’21 to January ’24 CPI rose by 17.96% for all items. Total rise in wages according to the MIT-Sloan duo was 15.3%. Workers should be thrilled!! And guess what, you get to assume the debt of college deadbeats. That’s right the same ones on the beaches recently getting drunk for “beach week”.
Just back from the gas station with prices higher than 6-months ago–Wegman’s where you can vividly see prices have gone up in the past year–my city water bill arrived yesterday with a notice of a 4.8% increase beginning soon and one cause was rising prices for supplies they use, but it could have been over 6% they tell me, so be happy..
Checked the price of your auto insurance–home owners insurance–how about your electric and gas bills –just the basics to run a home are are much higher than a few years ago. Read the Journal front page article about young couples trying to buy a home–appeared last week. No problem according to those telling us inflation is down so nothing to see here.
Dick Quinn and his merry bunch of Trump haters are the our disinformation folks. The same folks who told us illegal immigration was a positive for the country–crime??? what crime? don’t you know it is down from last year? What do you mean you don’t want an EV–we are going to mandate it–heard the about the $7 billion allocated to build charging stations–7 built so far.
Remember the “big lie” about you could keep your doctor and you could save $2,500 by adopting Obamacare–same folks spreading this disinformation.
The Fed, that is responsible for cleaning up Biden’s mess, says we can live with 2% inflation. The current rate is 50%+ more than that figure and we should thrilled??
Anyone know why COSTCO has begun selling gold?? You think the average Jack and Jill know something the Dick Quinn’s don’t know.
Heck, we are running a hot economy–money is pouring into treasury–and the budget deficit is out of control. So, at some point we begin printing up $ again (can you say QE1) and monetizing the debt, thus devaluing the currency even more.
Will we see inflation increase or decrease between now and November? Will the Fed cut rates just once, or maybe twice, or maybe not at all? These are all unknown. But going around suggesting folks believe that inflation numbers you don’t like are a “blip” and what you are seeing is not really what you are seeing takes a lot of chutzpah.
I have no clue where the numbers are going but we created this mess when we sent just about everyone checks and the Feds pumped $ into states and cities with few strings attached. Let’s just wait and see!
While quite natural to blame the people in power at any time for the current state of things, it is rarely completely accurate. Did the poorly planned stimulus payments add to deficits maybe even inflation, probably, but I don’t know any critics who sent the money back.
The Trump tax cuts will have for more negative economic consequences for all of us in the future because their cost is compounding.
Obamacare clearly fell short of the promises as any who understands health care knew it would, but it did not prevent anyone from picking their doctor anymore than any other health plans like the popular Medicare Advantage plans that are also way over subsidized. Today the enhanced Obamacare subsidies allow millions of Americans to save far more than the $2,500 – good policy or not.
There is no evidence that immigrants legal or not have a higher crime rate than native citizens. Would you believe Trump policies stopped more legal than illegal immigrants from entering the Country, a resource we very much need.
Inflation is more a global issue than anything else internally affecting us, but getting deficits under control is essential which means higher taxes because cutting anything Americans want is very unlikely – except if it only affects somebody else.
Of course raise taxes–the first response of the left–just give more of your money and we will do wondrous things for you–remember the left wants to grow government–regulate your every movement and make you dependent on them (Dick Quinn says no Medicare Advantage should be allowed– everyone gets traditional and Medicare for all–there goes our choice)
I told you Dick lefties just love to regulate and diminish our choices –who knows better than you what I should have and it is definitely not Advantage.
Back to taxes–look at the great job the blue governors have done in CA.–NY–NJ–IL–we could go on and on–why do you think people flee those states as soon as they can? $15,000 a year property tax????
Dick says we can’t cut spending but I say that is where leadership comes in. A leader might say we can’t have all the goodies and maybe we need to raise taxes on the high end.
Why do we blame people in power? Easy–they take all the credit if there are positive results–“under my economy unemployment is 3.4%”–gas prices hit $4.25– “it’s all Putin–yep it’s Putin’s fault.” Biden or Trump saying it’s their economy is a joke especially Biden who never ran anything in his life other than his mouth.
“How do I get gas prices down before the 2022 election–easy–just pump oil from the emergency caverns they are stored in”. What was the emergency? electing Democrats in the off-year election. Let’s fill the reserves in case we have a real emergency–can’t do that as oil is $80 a barrel they tell us. Reserves are, I read, at a very low level.
Yes, illegal immigrant crime might not be an issue but they are here illegally–obey the law–follow the rules. I bet the Quinn children were taught to follow the rules. Again, when migrants were bussed to sanctuary cities boy did we see folks change–the best was the Vineyard who declared a state of emergency for 25-30 folks.
I told my wife that Shelly Obama has a spread right on the ocean that could house 7 or 8–they should just call her and ask as it was off season . Maybe they were worried that the ocean would engulf the property (isn’t what they tell us?) but Barack walks on water which is maybe why they bought so close to the Atlantic. Don’t you try that Dick–you’re a good guy but walking on water is even more than you can do.
Look the economy is red hot and I can just as easily argue it’s because of the Trump tax cuts–I bet if we were in a recession you would be blaming the Trump tax cuts. There is no lack of money coming into the treasury it’s the spending. The interest on the debt now exceeds defense spending.
Tell me Dick–look at economy as it is and tell me some negatives you would emphasize if you were running against the old guy. Go to the other side of the field and make a few arguments.
Go ahead and raise taxes–raise the cost of doing business–the more you tax the less you get–want to stop people from smoking, well raise the tax–why do businesses flee the high tax states (blue) for the low tax states (red)–you think it’s because of the climate?
Didn’t you watch public television Dick and see Rick Steves tell us how Ireland is booming–tourist are coming–restaurants and businesses large and small are in great shape. I think the corporate tax rate is 15%. All of this is just common sense. Raise the cost of living and/or doing business and folks will find other places to go. That might be you and the misses some day Dick!
Dick are you planning on driving into NYC anytime soon? I bet not! see above!
Inflation was lower in some countries and higher in others. The common denominator was goosing the economy with money they did not have. You have supply shortages so what do you do? Send out checks to folks so they bid up the prices on items in short supply? Where did that $ come from? The Fed buying bonds which adds to the money supply. Right now the Fed is selling bonds thus trying to bring those dollars back.
Remember, during this covid period Germany had negative interest rates but not any longer.
Remember, here in the States the run on toilet paper by folks who did not have the runs? That was in 2019 when covid came calling? Well we had lots of such shortages but inflation was tame until that 3rd tranche of money made its way into the system. Too much money chasing too few goods thus you get classic inflation as many prominent economists said would happen.
Obamacare seems to work and folks seem to want it and many need it. I won’t pass judgement but Republicans are not running against it. Of course politicians lied and made some wild deals to get it, but that’s politics and politicians.
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
Collective amnesia?Covid?If you weren’t one of the millions who died, you lived long enough to see the cost of living rise… all over the world. And U.S. inflation was lower than average. The U.S. economy seems to be improving more quickly than most other countries.
Are your food costs increasing?
“Food Prices Soar, and So Do Companies’ Profits”New York Times
“While millions of Americans are being squeezed at the grocery store, major food companies are raking in record profits.”ABC news.
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This is why I am voting for Trump. He is the only candidate who understands that to tame inflation, you have to curb demand. His plan to cut social security and Medicare will help cool the economy down. I don’t like some of his other policies, like the total ban on abortion and pulling out of NATO, but will support him because he can fix inflation.
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And what cutting to those programs would you find acceptable?
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I think we are in a crisis and it requires radical action that only President Trump is bold enough to take. Americans have gone soft. There are many seniors who can go back to work or move in with their children. Let churches take over the care of the poor and sick like the Founding Fathers intended. Biden is ruining this country with all his “do gooder” attitudes.
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Where do the churches get the money?
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Just Just more BS from Sleepy Joe. I wish he’d walk through a grocery store just once.
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What has post to do with Biden?
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INFLATION !
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In the last 3 years 3 months inflation has risen 21%. The play on words is “inflation is down.” Prices that went up due to this inflation haven’t come down. The increases simply slowed down. Salaries haven’t kept up with prices. This isn’t a fallacy or a perception, it’s reality!
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In mid 2022 inflation was over 8% Today it is about 3.2% Prices don’t change with the declining rate of inflation.
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Doh!!!! And you’re still having trouble understanding why 78% of Americans think the economy is bad!
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I believe Tom Murin has hit the nail on the head. The rate of increase has slowed but it’s still going upward and the previous effects are compounded. It doesn’t bother those who have sufficient incomes to ignore the new higher prices, but for the majority of people, it is a hard reality.
LikeLike
The was a blip increase last month but we are still at about 3.2%, Data from November 2023 show that 57 percent of workers’ wages grew, on an annual basis, more quickly than inflation since November 2022.
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That is 57%, we don’t know about the other 43%. Neither do we know how they fared after withholding. At best probably treading water.
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Well just look at how Americans spend their money, look in grocery carts, look at all the businesses that sell highly discretionary goods and services. A lot of people are spending a lot of money.
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I intended to respond to Dick Quinn’s post about people still spending but Al Lindquist put up a masterpiece so I will defer to said masterpiece. Nothing more need be said.
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Once again the Voice of reasoning. Unfortunately I don’t have a subscription to the WSJ and that’s the only way to read the article.
Appreciate your blog as well as your HD articles.
Martin Brasstown, NC.
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It’s not “misinformation.” It takes people time to adjust to the new higher prices. They don’t re-set it every year – they compound it. Inflation is down – that doesn’t mean that prices are down.. The rate of increase has slowed. They do know, however, that their pay hasn’t increased as fast as inflation.
You know the saying “perception is reality.”
We know from behavioral economics that people are loss averse. They are losing from inflation.
LikeLike
All you do is refer to the information provided by Stephanie Stamm in the April 4 article in the Journal. She has a graphic of products bought by the average folks and a current price of each. Those same products increased by 36.5% since Biden decided to dump his 2nd tranche of money into the economy. He was warned by numerous folks, many Democrats, what would happen but he wanted to be Santa.
Robert Pozen/S.P. Kothari from the MIT Sloan of business tell us in the Journal yesterday that from January ’21 to January ’24 CPI rose by 17.96% for all items. Total rise in wages according to the MIT-Sloan duo was 15.3%. Workers should be thrilled!! And guess what, you get to assume the debt of college deadbeats. That’s right the same ones on the beaches recently getting drunk for “beach week”.
Just back from the gas station with prices higher than 6-months ago–Wegman’s where you can vividly see prices have gone up in the past year–my city water bill arrived yesterday with a notice of a 4.8% increase beginning soon and one cause was rising prices for supplies they use, but it could have been over 6% they tell me, so be happy..
Checked the price of your auto insurance–home owners insurance–how about your electric and gas bills –just the basics to run a home are are much higher than a few years ago. Read the Journal front page article about young couples trying to buy a home–appeared last week. No problem according to those telling us inflation is down so nothing to see here.
Dick Quinn and his merry bunch of Trump haters are the our disinformation folks. The same folks who told us illegal immigration was a positive for the country–crime??? what crime? don’t you know it is down from last year? What do you mean you don’t want an EV–we are going to mandate it–heard the about the $7 billion allocated to build charging stations–7 built so far.
Remember the “big lie” about you could keep your doctor and you could save $2,500 by adopting Obamacare–same folks spreading this disinformation.
The Fed, that is responsible for cleaning up Biden’s mess, says we can live with 2% inflation. The current rate is 50%+ more than that figure and we should thrilled??
Anyone know why COSTCO has begun selling gold?? You think the average Jack and Jill know something the Dick Quinn’s don’t know.
Heck, we are running a hot economy–money is pouring into treasury–and the budget deficit is out of control. So, at some point we begin printing up $ again (can you say QE1) and monetizing the debt, thus devaluing the currency even more.
Will we see inflation increase or decrease between now and November? Will the Fed cut rates just once, or maybe twice, or maybe not at all? These are all unknown. But going around suggesting folks believe that inflation numbers you don’t like are a “blip” and what you are seeing is not really what you are seeing takes a lot of chutzpah.
I have no clue where the numbers are going but we created this mess when we sent just about everyone checks and the Feds pumped $ into states and cities with few strings attached. Let’s just wait and see!
LikeLike
While quite natural to blame the people in power at any time for the current state of things, it is rarely completely accurate. Did the poorly planned stimulus payments add to deficits maybe even inflation, probably, but I don’t know any critics who sent the money back.
The Trump tax cuts will have for more negative economic consequences for all of us in the future because their cost is compounding.
Obamacare clearly fell short of the promises as any who understands health care knew it would, but it did not prevent anyone from picking their doctor anymore than any other health plans like the popular Medicare Advantage plans that are also way over subsidized. Today the enhanced Obamacare subsidies allow millions of Americans to save far more than the $2,500 – good policy or not.
There is no evidence that immigrants legal or not have a higher crime rate than native citizens. Would you believe Trump policies stopped more legal than illegal immigrants from entering the Country, a resource we very much need.
Inflation is more a global issue than anything else internally affecting us, but getting deficits under control is essential which means higher taxes because cutting anything Americans want is very unlikely – except if it only affects somebody else.
LikeLike
Of course raise taxes–the first response of the left–just give more of your money and we will do wondrous things for you–remember the left wants to grow government–regulate your every movement and make you dependent on them (Dick Quinn says no Medicare Advantage should be allowed– everyone gets traditional and Medicare for all–there goes our choice)
I told you Dick lefties just love to regulate and diminish our choices –who knows better than you what I should have and it is definitely not Advantage.
Back to taxes–look at the great job the blue governors have done in CA.–NY–NJ–IL–we could go on and on–why do you think people flee those states as soon as they can? $15,000 a year property tax????
Dick says we can’t cut spending but I say that is where leadership comes in. A leader might say we can’t have all the goodies and maybe we need to raise taxes on the high end.
Why do we blame people in power? Easy–they take all the credit if there are positive results–“under my economy unemployment is 3.4%”–gas prices hit $4.25– “it’s all Putin–yep it’s Putin’s fault.” Biden or Trump saying it’s their economy is a joke especially Biden who never ran anything in his life other than his mouth.
“How do I get gas prices down before the 2022 election–easy–just pump oil from the emergency caverns they are stored in”. What was the emergency? electing Democrats in the off-year election. Let’s fill the reserves in case we have a real emergency–can’t do that as oil is $80 a barrel they tell us. Reserves are, I read, at a very low level.
Yes, illegal immigrant crime might not be an issue but they are here illegally–obey the law–follow the rules. I bet the Quinn children were taught to follow the rules. Again, when migrants were bussed to sanctuary cities boy did we see folks change–the best was the Vineyard who declared a state of emergency for 25-30 folks.
I told my wife that Shelly Obama has a spread right on the ocean that could house 7 or 8–they should just call her and ask as it was off season . Maybe they were worried that the ocean would engulf the property (isn’t what they tell us?) but Barack walks on water which is maybe why they bought so close to the Atlantic. Don’t you try that Dick–you’re a good guy but walking on water is even more than you can do.
Look the economy is red hot and I can just as easily argue it’s because of the Trump tax cuts–I bet if we were in a recession you would be blaming the Trump tax cuts. There is no lack of money coming into the treasury it’s the spending. The interest on the debt now exceeds defense spending.
Tell me Dick–look at economy as it is and tell me some negatives you would emphasize if you were running against the old guy. Go to the other side of the field and make a few arguments.
Go ahead and raise taxes–raise the cost of doing business–the more you tax the less you get–want to stop people from smoking, well raise the tax–why do businesses flee the high tax states (blue) for the low tax states (red)–you think it’s because of the climate?
Didn’t you watch public television Dick and see Rick Steves tell us how Ireland is booming–tourist are coming–restaurants and businesses large and small are in great shape. I think the corporate tax rate is 15%. All of this is just common sense. Raise the cost of living and/or doing business and folks will find other places to go. That might be you and the misses some day Dick!
Dick are you planning on driving into NYC anytime soon? I bet not! see above!
Inflation was lower in some countries and higher in others. The common denominator was goosing the economy with money they did not have. You have supply shortages so what do you do? Send out checks to folks so they bid up the prices on items in short supply? Where did that $ come from? The Fed buying bonds which adds to the money supply. Right now the Fed is selling bonds thus trying to bring those dollars back.
Remember, during this covid period Germany had negative interest rates but not any longer.
Remember, here in the States the run on toilet paper by folks who did not have the runs? That was in 2019 when covid came calling? Well we had lots of such shortages but inflation was tame until that 3rd tranche of money made its way into the system. Too much money chasing too few goods thus you get classic inflation as many prominent economists said would happen.
Obamacare seems to work and folks seem to want it and many need it. I won’t pass judgement but Republicans are not running against it. Of course politicians lied and made some wild deals to get it, but that’s politics and politicians.
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