Dodging DOGE is easy

Musk and company can slash and burn, eliminate federal workers, close departments, eliminate regulations and stop paying for butt sensitive toilets all they want.

That’s not where the money is and no matter anyway, because whatever is saved Congress and the new administration will spend more in new ways than what may be saved.

It all sounds good until someone’s Ox is gored. We have no chance of cutting the deficit and debt until we stop new spending first.

Now tell the American people the truth about spending on the stuff someone wants, frugality and efficiency be damned.

8 comments

  1. Or, go back to pre-pandemic spending levels on welfare – given President Biden’s assertions that the American economy is the best in the world and he is solely responsible for that result.

    From today’s WSJ:

    The Great Biden Welfare Blowout
    The GOP can save huge sums by going back to pre-pandemic spending on Medicaid and SNAP.
    … Republicans should realize how much … they can save money for taxpayers by shrinking income transfers to restore incentives to work for the able-bodied while still protecting the social safety net for those who fall onto hard times.

    The national jobless rate has fallen to 4.1% from the late Covid-era’s 6.3% at the start of the Biden Presidency, yet the welfare rolls haven’t shrunk. Some 84.6 million individuals are enrolled in Medicaid—about a quarter of the population—roughly the same as when Mr. Biden entered office. About 42.6 million Americans receive food stamps, similar to January 2021.

    Annual federal and state spending on (Medicaid) has grown by 60% to $963 billion—more than the U.S. now spends on national defense.

    Consider California, where 37% of residents are covered by Medicaid. The state has extended Medicaid to undocumented immigrants and waived asset limits for beneficiaries. Mr. Newsom’s budget forecasts some $190 billion in Medicaid and other health spending this year, $119 billion of which will be picked up by the feds. The latter amount is greater than Florida’s annual budget.

    Biden officials have also boosted food-stamp allotments and waived work requirements for able-bodied adults. A recent Wall Street Journal article reported the case of an unemployed worker who worried that accepting a job with a “smallish paycheck” would end his eligibility for food stamps and Medicaid. How many more are like him?

    … Mr. Biden’s welfare expansions have mostly benefited those who can support themselves but for any number of reasons choose not to.

    Restoring entitlements to pre-pandemic levels in just these two programs would reduce deficits by $1.4+ Trillion over 10 years.

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    1. unemployed worker who worried that accepting a job with a “smallish paycheck” would end his eligibility for food stamps and Medicaid. What’s the answer for this? Sound like a Catch 22.

      Mr. Biden’s welfare expansions have mostly benefited those who can support themselves but for any number of reasons choose not to. How do you know that?

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      1. How do I know that?

        Through 2025, if you make over 400% of the Federal Poverty Level ($58,320 single, $120,000 family of four), taxpayer subsidies for health care coverage continue to apply, gradually decreasing as your taxable income rises.

        Why should America continue to go deeper into debt for a family of four with a household MAGI that exceeds $120,000, to provide them a taxpayer subsidy for health coverage?

        And, that’s just one example. There are many more.

        Remember that the median American households income is slightly in excess of $80,000 and tens of millions of such households do not receive such subsidies.

        The spending was intentional, designed to buy votes from those who are rent seekers and who pursue entitlements designed to be temporary. Any wonder why 47+% of Americans who voted chose Ms. Harris. Some wanted to keep the federal spending up, or even increase it (student debt forgiveness, etc.) Others are likely disproportionally represented among those who do not pay income taxes today.

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  2. In terms of the Department of Education:

    The Department of Education’s IMPACT Report Does Little to Conceal a Litany of Failures
    By Michael Brickman, 1/6/25

    “… Amid a widely recognized crisis, it may be asking too much of those in charge to engage in honest self-reflection, but one would hope that leaders would at least have enough self-awareness not to engage in self-flattery in lieu of pursuing corrective actions. However, with less than a month remaining of its tenure, the outgoing Biden administration’s Department of Education published a three-dozen-page report that seems to do just that, avoiding confronting its many failures and shortcomings in favor of clinging to phantom successes, many of which are exaggerated or misleading.

    “The IMPACT: Fighting for Public Education” contains no shortage of vague happy talk and inoffensive pictures, but the department and Secretary Miguel Cardona do little to address or even acknowledge the severity of the problems they caused or neglected, opting instead for a self-congratulatory laundry list of purported accomplishments that do not stand up to scrutiny.

    The report doesn’t start off promisingly, with the department claiming in the first line item to have “safely and quickly reopen[ed] schools.”

    …These extended closures were especially harmful in big cities with strong teachers’ unions, where some of the schools serving low-income populations stayed closed the longest.

    T… their efforts to accelerate students’ learning and claiming that these efforts are “contributing to a significant rebound in student achievement” in the wake of the pandemic.

    … A similar deception is present in the report’s coverage of Secretary Cardona’s marquee initiative: student loan forgiveness. … new initiatives … would have been among the most costly regulations in American history. Amusingly, zero mention is made of its original loan cancellation scheme that was defeated in the Supreme Court, and a mere sentence is dedicated to the failed SAVE Plan, which is currently stalled in a legal battle. (All in all, President Biden wiped out $175 Billion in student debt, and an even greater amount of interest foregone).

    … only a glancing reference is made to the rampant instances of antisemitism on college campuses

    …the botched Free Application for Federal Student Aid (wasn’t) mentioned at all.

    and crapped all over school choice initiatives.

    See: https://www.npr.org/2023/06/21/1183445544/u-s-reading-and-math-scores-drop-to-lowest-level-in-decades

    You want to keep this crappy performing, duplicative federal department?

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  3. “Now tell the American people the truth about spending on the stuff someone wants, frugality and efficiency be damned.”

    Earlier, I suggested: “… Reduce the percentage of American households who do not want to pay, and do not pay income taxes from a high of 57% in 2021 back to the level in 1969 – 16% – start there. …”

    I would sign off on the following, if done right:

    See: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trumps-tax-cuts-were-good-a-flat-tax-would-be-better-434c1d8d?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

    Trump’s Tax Cuts Were Good. A Flat Tax Would Be Better
    Congress should scrap itemized deductions and enact a flat personal and corporate rate of 15%.

    In the article, Phil Gramm and Stephen Moore note:

    “… America would suddenly have one of the lowest tax rates in the world, resulting in trillions of dollars of new capital flow and a spike in take-home pay. …”

    “… The simplicity of a flat tax would reduce the deadweight costs associated with tax compliance—and the headaches. The White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs calculates that Americans spent almost eight billion hours filling out tax forms in 2024. The Tax Foundation estimates that this cost the economy $413 billion in lost productivity, and the Internal Revenue Service estimates that we spent $133 billion on out-of-pocket compliance costs. That adds up to a burden of $546 billion. …”

    “… Getting rid of what remains of these itemized deductions and special credits—except for those dedicated to supporting families with children and dependents, a worthy investment—would unleash the economy. …”

    So, flat tax, yes, but 15% is correct only if we start with the first dollar, where all with income (wages, income from pensions, capital gains, distributions from retirement savings, etc.) are treated as individual/single taxpayers with no dependents – no joint filers, no head of household filings (no adjusted gross income, no taxable income, no deductions, no exemptions) – so that withholding = tax due (like many cities do it, like Social Security and Medicare). That would allow America to wipe 80+% of the IRS off the map, leverage efficiencies, etc. – because there would be no forms to file on wages subject to withholding. There would be no forms to file for interest credited or realized capital gains reported by Banks and others, who would be required to electronically report both interest income, capital gains and withholding on the 1099.

    Every American would have certainty that everyone was paying their “fair share” (whatever the hell that means) and that no one dodged the system – except for those in the underground economy. It would be up to the IRS to chase those folks down (as they would for any business or corporation), and yes, I would require individuals (you and me) to electronically file a 1099 with the IRS (“snitch” on ’em) for any personal service individual or business to whom they paid $500 or more in any calendar year (yes, lawyers, accountants, newspaper carriers, babysitters, etc.)

    To the extent that Congress wants to provide relief to certain groups, let them make specific expenditures in the form of “credits” as part of other legislation and systems – not the income tax system:

    • Families, perhaps part of welfare systems,
    • Retirement, limit to Roth where contributions are after tax and where earnings are tax deferred and only tax free if distributed after age 59 1/2 and five years after the initial participation ( as we now have Roth for employer contributions to 401k plans, also apply that to defined benefit and money purchase pension plans),
    • Charitable contributions – match them at 15% on the dollar, and
    • Home ownership – subsidize interest rates.

    Make all of those expenditures obvious to all Americans, and provide a detailed annual report to all taxpayers, so they know what the government is spending money on.

    Keep in mind that almost all states with income taxes start with the federal adjusted gross income, so, this would likely raise revenue for the states – allowing them to take over some of the responsibilities that should never have been part of the beltway crowd.

    This is a necessary revenue raiser, simplification, and curtailment of IRS bureaucrats that add nothing to the economy or productivity. Watch ’em howl when they can no longer gimmick up the tax code to buy votes while sending the bill to others, those too young to vote, or generations yet unborn!

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  4. AL LINDQUIST:

    great work Jack–sure beats the “we have to raise taxes because we cannot cut spending”–

    appreciate the time and effort you put into this–yes, some folks will holler holy hell as we have built this problem in an attempt to buy votes, but one way or the other we will have to come to grips with this bloated government.

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  5. “Now tell the American people the truth about spending on the stuff someone wants, frugality and efficiency be damned.”

    Exactly! Stop lying to Americans that they can have stuff where other people will pay, including $2+ Trillion of debt per year foisted onto younger generations, especially Americans too young to vote and generations yet unborn.

    Among the wants:

    Many want the Department of Education – start there.

    Many want student debt forgiveness – start there.

    Many want funding assistance for illegal immigrants – start there.

    Many rely on the taxpayer funded subsidies for wages that are part of the Davis Bacon act – start there.

    Many want the unlimited tax preference for health coverage to continue (we limit the exclusion on other benefits, and capping the exclusion for health care would generate bigtime revenue to the extent employers didn’t spend it on other tax preferred benefits) – start there.

    Reduce the percentage of American households who do not want to pay, and do not pay income taxes from a high of 57% in 2021 back to the level in 1969 – 16% – start there.

    Or, be devious about it, refuse to take action, and let certain spending and tax expenditures lapse, instead of renewing them – here are some provisions that will expire soon:

    Allow the increased taxpayer subsidies for Exchange health coverage to expire – especially for Americans with incomes greater than 4x the federal poverty level – returning to Health Reform levels approved in 2010.

    Tax brackets: The individual income tax rates of 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35% and 37% will return to 2017 rates 10%, 15%, 25%, 28%, 33%, 35% and 39.6%

    Reductions in standard deductions back to 2017 levels

    Reductions in child tax credits back to 2017 levels

    Return to the old Savers Credit by not implementing the Savers Match

    Return of the Alternative Minimum Tax to 2017 levels for millions of middle income and higher income taxpayers

    Return to 2017 levels for the estate and gift tax exemption – which would encourage people to die this year because the federal exemption of $13,610,000 will decline to ~ $5.5MM

    They could have let the farm subsidies expire, or limit them, or phased them out at higher income levels – for example, when SNAP was approved in 1969, we spent $250 MM, in FY 2023, we spent $115 Billion.

    National Flood Insurance Program Authorization Expires – phase out subsidies so people stop building or pay a heck of a lot more in locations prone to flooding.

    Allow the paid family leave credit to expire

    Allow the exclusion for employer-paid student loans to expire

    Allow multiple tax extenders to expire such as Empowerment Zones incentives, film and live performances expensing, the wind energy investment tax credit, the Rural Community Hospital Demonstration program,

    Allow the tax exclusion for student debt forgiveness to expire

    Allow the surface transportation programs authorization provided by Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to expire

    Allow the Export-Import Bank to expire

    Allow Maternal, Infant, & Early Childhood Home Visiting to expire

    I would sign up for DOGE if I thought they (Congress, Trump, etc.) were really serious about eliminating the $2 Trillion/year annual deficit (via combinations of reductions in spending and increases in taxes to return us to a balanced budget, to stop adding to national debt).

    I would be happy to be the decider so that tens of millions of Americans who lost some tax preference or some entitlement could all blame me.

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