Adding Up the House Reconciliation Bill
MAY 14, 2025
The developing House reconciliation bill is shaping up to add roughly $3.3 trillion to the debt through Fiscal Year (FY) 2034 and is setting the stage for more than $5.2 trillion of additional debt if policymakers ultimately extend temporary provisions.
Although the reconciliation bill has yet to be officially scored in full and not all components have passed out of committee, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have fully or partially scored several committee recommendations.
Between these scores and other available information, we estimate that by 2034 the House reconciliation bill would:
- Increase debt by $3.3 trillion, or $5.2 trillion if made permanent
- Increase annual deficits to $2.9 trillion (6.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product), or $3.3 trillion (7.8 percent of GDP) if made permanent
- Increase yearly interest costs to $1.8 trillion (4.2 percent of GDP), or $1.9 trillion (4.4 percent of GDP) if made permanent
- Increase debt to 125 percent of GDP, or 129 percent of GDP if made permanent
Based on available scores, we estimate the reconciliation bill as written would boost total deficits through FY 2034 by roughly $3.3 trillion – with $4.1 trillion of new borrowing from committees with deficit-increasing instructions partially offset by nearly $1.5 trillion of deficit reduction from the other committees (after adjusting for likely interactions), combined with about $570 billion of interest costs. If made permanent, we estimate the bill would add about $5.2 trillion to deficits through 2034.
This potential increased debt is not even offset by tariffs as they now stand and appear to be declining. The Budget Lab at Yale projects a possible revenue of $3 trillion over ten years, but also a $3,789 decline in real household income along with a decline in real GDP growth.
In the end, if all this stands, Americans will have lost in the aggregate and nothing has lowered the deficit or debt or interest costs.
In addition, Americans stand to lose more depending on what federal spending is shifted to the States.
And we still have not address the trusts for Social Security and Medicare.
There is no practical, logical coordination of anything. ‼️
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
The national debt hasn’t been a problem so far, so I guess I’m not terribly worried about it yet 🤷 not like I can do anything about it. I’m just gonna make sure I can pay my share when the bill comes due. Make sure you’ve got a spare 200k lying around, folks.
LikeLike
When you and Connie look at year-end assets you, like many of us, probably don’t say; we made/lost $350,000–no, you probably say we made/ lost 7.58 %. Well, same thing applies to debts and deficits. Percentage of debt, Percentage of deficit. Some folks even compare returns to indexes, on a % basis.
You become more credible when we do it the the right way.
Now it might not fit a bias, but it gives proper perspective.
I agree, too much debt. Lots of fuzzy thinking, but let’s hear the same for the previous folks.
LikeLike
Interesting we see all of this now but the prior 4 years we saw little in the way of budget restrictions when the New Green Deal, covid spending , infrastructure bill passed,checks mailed out.
Was it more logical and coordinated, 4 years ago? Brother Quinn has different strokes for different folks.
LikeLike
You weren’t looking in the right place. It’s been there all along as the debt and deficits continue to climb.
Biden added $4.7 trillion to the debt. Total now $36 trillion.
During his first term in the Oval Office, Donald Trump added nearly $8 trillion to the national debt. That was more than 43 presidents had combined to accumulate during the first 216 years of the Republic… and his desired tax legislation will add trillions more.
LikeLike
Years 2023 and 2024 were most reckless ever. How do we know? Because, unlike you, calculations are done using the most honest numbers.
% of GDP is where you belong. The deficit was 6.0 and 6.5 % of GDP in spite of 4% unemployment. Money was pouring in and your buddies were spending like drunken sailors.
Under Reagan unemployment hit 10% and the deficit was 5.9% of GDP.
In fact discretionary spending for 2026 is scheduled to fall 32% below CBO totals they told us about in January of this year.
.
.
LikeLike
The bill appears to be stalled and adjustments will have to be made. The increase in payroll taxes will help by decreasing the effect of Social Security and Medicare on the budget.
LikeLike