Federal policy changes could leave 10.9 million more people uninsured, and 16 million more with the expected expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits

Trump promised “Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again” and this is what he delivered.

Here are policy changes that really are pushing people off a cliff. Instead of the promised great new health plan, we get this.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released new estimates for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Wednesday, which show that the bill would reduce Medicaid spending by $793 billion. KFF’s latest Medicaid analysis considers what these federal cuts could mean for state Medicaid spending and enrollment by allocating the CBO’s estimates across states using KFF’s state-level data. Over 10 years, these proposed cuts would represent 12% of projected federal Medicaid spending, ranging from 5% in Wyoming and Alabama to 17% in Washington. 

Previous CBO estimates show that 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034, representing 12% of projected enrollment for that year. Washington and Virginia could see the largest percentage drops in Medicaid enrollment, with their rolls falling by 26% and 21%, respectively. The largest numbers would lose Medicaid in California (1.7M), New York (1.0M), Illinois (5104K), Washington (490K), and Pennsylvania (440K).

second KFF analysis looks at how the bill would increase the number of people without health insurance by 10.9 million and 16 million more when the expected expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits is included. About half (48%) of the 16 million more people who would be uninsured in this scenario live in Florida (2.3M), Texas (1.9M), California (1.8M), New York (920k), and Georgia (750k).  Read More on Medicaid Watch

Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) is a nonprofit health policy research, polling, and news organization. 

2 comments

  1. Yo, before the R’s push grandma over a cliff, they should start with returning Health Reform to the intent that was part of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 – including all of the policing regarding the gaming underway by states designed to max out federal taxpayer contributions.

    Next, we should, as the law says, limit public exchange and Medicaid coverage solely to those “lawfully present in the United States.”

    My understanding is that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will result in Medicaid spend that will continue to increase over the ten year period, just not at the rate underway today.

    But, the easier option is to require everyone who enrolls in Medicaid or the public exchange to contribute the lesser of the full cost of the coverage or 9.02% of household income (including all income, both cash and in-kind, and government benefits).

    Watch them drop coverage once they have to shoulder any of the premium expense.

    FYI, that’s the same percentage you and I would have to pay for exchange coverage.

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  2. There seem to be all sorts of projections about the bill and the next 10 years. Basically I’m reading here and there that Medicaid is proposed to get something less than 800 billion over 10 years to something a little more than 800 billion less. That translates to 80 billion a year and that supposedly represents the savings by including a work requirement. Given the growth in the enrollment in Medicaid in the last 10 years that is not a large cutback. States have the option of picking up any shortfall as they see fit.

    The KFF seems to be the alarmist on this issue but it does see any government program as sacred.

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