The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®deteriorated by 5.4 points in June, falling to 93.0 (1985=100) from 98.4 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 6.4 points to 129.1.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell 4.6 points to 69.0, substantially below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was June 18, 2025.
“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “
The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.
Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened.
Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”
June’s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans.
We can’t control what others do and we can’t stop misfortune from striking. But we can control our own actions. Those who are financially prudent will most likely enjoy success, even if events don’t always go their way.
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
how did it “weaken for six consecutive months” while “June erased almost all of May’s gains”
what do the data say for July? Sounds like it could be up or down, right?
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Well, I’m guessing on and off tariffs and tax and spend rhetoric and mixed signals. Who knows where we are headed tomorrow.
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You can’t have six consecutive months of decline and also have May as a gain.
My point about July is that the data is so variable, so all over the place, that even the Fed is frozen in place on interest rates.
We are talking about the “Expectations Index”, right, so, all those people who are in the survey don’t know any more than you and I … as you say, who knows.
So, why should we care about what people predict or expect?
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Al Lindquist
Markets usually look ahead and equities are near record highs–what does that tell us–I don’t see the benefit of all the tariff talk and on again off again rates–as my father would say to Trump; “shi-or get off the pot.”
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I have been reading and seeing on tv that recession is just around the corner or is here and just hasn’t been proclaimed yet. Everything has been the anticipated trigger point. The tariffs, Trump has irritated Canada and Mexico, Trump is tossing out the workforce, Trump is proposing ruinous tax provisions, etc. I failed to mention Iran.
Trump is guilty of all that and it would not have been the path I would have chosen but still the recession is not here, at least not yet. My concern is the amount of debt carried by the private sector. This country has too many fast food joints, too many dollar stores and general retail outlets. That’s beside overbuilt office space and the like. It is all built on a mountain of debt and the fast food joints and dollar stores are closing and claiming bankruptcy.
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