Never in my 80+ years have I been so concerned about the accuracy of the information being provided by an Administration.
The track record for this President is not good and made worse by his tendency to attack anyone who disagrees or embarrasses him.
Will employment and inflation numbers be trustworthy? Can we rely on CDC advice?
Here is one cause for concern
CEA’s Fantastical Economic Assumptions
June 26, 2025
The White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) released a report today claiming the Senate’s proposed version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) would generate $2.1 to $2.3 trillion of dynamic feedback and boost output by 2.4 to 4.9 percent. These claims are based on fantasy growth assumptions are many times higher than other estimators.
In essence, dynamic feedback in budgeting transforms financial planning from a bureaucratic exercise into a strategic tool that empowers organizations to be more adaptive, resilient, and effective in a constantly changing business environment. Will the OBBBA be a positive or negative economic/deficit impact?
In a coming analysis, we will explain the many flaws in CEA’s analysis. Below, we show how far off CEA’s estimates are from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Joint Committee on Taxation, and five other credible modelers – many which find negative dynamic feedback.
As we have shown before, dynamic estimates find that the OBBBA would produce anywhere from $860 billion of negative dynamic feedback to $900 billion of positive dynamic feedback. The most comprehensive and official dynamic analysis, from CBO, finds the House-passed version of the bill would increase deficits by $430 billion more on a dynamic basis as a result of higher interest rates.
CEA’s claim of $2.1 to $2.3 trillion of dynamic feedback is nearly 2.5 times as large as the next highest estimate, more than 50 times as high as the average of outside modelers, and the opposite sign of CBO and others that conducted a comprehensive analysis of the bill. CEA’s assumption of $4.7 trillion when including additional policies addressing energy and deregulation is even more fantastical.
CEA’s incredible feedback assumptions come from ignoring the effects of OBBBA on spending and interest costs, ignoring the negative impact of rising national debt, and assuming unrealistically high positive growth effects from the tax portions of the bill. By 2028, CEA claims OBBBA would increase the level of economic output by 4.6 to 4.9 percent above baseline estimates – other modelers range from 0.1 to 1.3 percent. In 2034, CEA claims the bill would boost the level of output by 2.4 to 2.7 percent above baseline estimates. Most other modelers estimate it would boost 2034 output by 0.4 percent – with a range of negative 0.1 to positive 1.1 percent. In other words, CEA’s growth claims likely overstate the positive economic impact of the reconciliation bill by six times or more.
While OBBBA is likely to provide a large near-term boost to the economy by providing one-time stimulus, the medium-term effects are likely to be modest – as stronger incentives to work and invest are at least partially offset by the negative impact of a higher national debt. Over the very long term, most modelers estimate the bill would shrink output.
These fantastical assumptions and incredibly optimistic estimates only serve to obfuscate the very real deficit impact of enacting OBBBA in its current form. Instead of attempting to paper over OBBBA’s debt increase with phony analysis, policymakers should work towards ensuring that OBBBA reduces debt with offsets that cover its entire sum of tax cuts and spending increases.
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget | 1025 Connecticut Avenue NWSuite 1100 | Washington, DC 20036 US
QUINNSCOMMENTARY 
in terms of estimates, how soon we forget. Health Reform would not add one thin dime to the deficit, costs will decline $2,000+ for a family, you can keep your plan, you can keep your doctor, etc.
the real question is what baseline to use. Even the D’s agree with TCJA extension for all but those at the 37% marginal rate – damn the deficits, full spend ahead!
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I’m 50. If this passes & I have no doubt it will, I see this as the end of the US Dollar & the downward spiral of the US GDP.
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The obvious answer is don’t believe either side given that they are only making assumptions about the future and about what the final bill will look like.
Will employment and inflation numbers be trustworthy? My guess is about like the past when months later the numbers would be revised and not look like what was initially posted.That’s the jobs numbers I’m talking about. The inflation numbers are based on a basket that doesn’t resemble my basket ever. The only direction we can agree on is up.
The CDC lost my respect when Covid hit and their supposedly first line of defense was caught napping and they didn’t know what to do for months. Then we got worthless advice to stand 6 feet apart when queuing up at the post office and elsewhere.
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CDC and everyone else was confronted with the unknown trying to figure it all out. Easy to criticize with 20/20 hindsight a few years later when more info is known. I would think being cautious with distancing, masking, was very prudent. When I was quarantined on a ship for three weeks we did what we thought best to protect ourselves, including masks and distancing.
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